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WTA 125 CuritibaRound of 32claybest of three sets

Riera vs Masarova 2:1: result and our tips

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Julia RieraWTA #140Elo 1604clay 1625
2:1final1:6 6:4 6:1
Rebeka MasarovaWTA #158Elo 1709clay 1712

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won67%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Riera 15 of 20, Masarova 17 of 20 (tour average 59%); Masarova: 6 matches in a row over 18.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 22.5Won43%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 22.5 games in recent matches: Riera 10 of 20, Masarova 13 of 20 (tour average 37%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Julia Riera35%
Rebeka Masarova65%

Elo: J. Riera 38% · R. Masarova 62%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Riera24%
2:1 J. Riera17%
2:1 R. Masarova22%
2:0 R. Masarova38%

First set

Julia Riera45%
Rebeka Masarova55%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 49%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.567%33%59%
19.560%40%52%
20.553%47%45%
21.549%51%41%
22.543%57%37%
23.538%62%33%
24.536%64%31%

Sample: 1,467 matches

Games handicap

R. Masarova −2.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 21.0in · 24 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Julia RieraRebeka Masarova
0Aces3
6Double faults7
51%First serves in54%
51%First-serve points won57%
61%Second-serve points won47%
5/13Break points converted4/9
8/12Service games held7/12
56%Service points won52%
48%Return points won44%
92Total points won86

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. RieraTourR. Masarova
Service points won55%56%60%
Return points won47%44%42%
Service games held59%63%72%
Breaks of serve41%37%31%
Aces per service game0.190.46
Double faults per game0.400.40
Sets with a tie-break12%8%
Tie-breaks won5/104/11
Wins in straight sets38%39%
Matches in the sample3351

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Julia Riera

Rebeka Masarova

Elo over the last year

Julia RieraRebeka Masarova

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. RieraR. Masarova
Hard court4–640%8–1044%
Clay11–1052%13–1057%
Grass1–150%7–370%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

See also