Sakamoto vs Rublev 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 65%
Sakamoto: 6 matches in a row over 20.5 games
Where the number comes from: market alone 40% → with the players' profiles 43%
Rublev: 3 matches in a row over 23.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: R. Sakamoto 30% · A. Rublev 70%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.0
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 72% | 28% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 64% | 36% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 43% | 57% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 39% | 61% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 36% | 64% | 34% |
Sample: 4,151 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:0
- Total games Over 22.5out · 20 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Rei Sakamoto | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aces | 9 |
| 1 | Double faults | 2 |
| 60% | First serves in | 57% |
| 77% | First-serve points won | 76% |
| 62% | Second-serve points won | 56% |
| 2/3 | Break points converted | 0/2 |
| 10/10 | Service games held | 8/10 |
| 71% | Service points won | 67% |
| 33% | Return points won | 29% |
| 65 | Total points won | 58 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| R. Sakamoto | Tour | A. Rublev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 83% | 76% | 83% |
| Breaks of serve | 21% | 24% | 23% |
| Aces per service game | 0.66 | 0.58 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.19 | 0.22 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 24% | 22% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 19/41 | 17/32 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 60% | |
| Matches in the sample | 71 | 56 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Rei Sakamoto
- 07/10/26WMarco Trungelliti#90ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 7:5
- 06/10/26WKyrian Jacquet#76ATP Shanghai · Q27:6 4:6 7:6
- 05/10/26WSeongchan HongATP Shanghai · Q16:3 7:5
- 30/09/26LMatteo Arnaldi#38ATP Tokyo · R326:2 4:6 4:6
- 08/09/26LJi Sung Nam#827Challenger Shanghai · R326:7 4:6
- 02/09/26LFrances Tiafoe#10ATP US Open · R643:6 6:7 5:7
- 30/08/26WAleksandar Vukic#115ATP US Open · R1286:4 6:7 6:4 3:6 6:4
- 28/08/26WKei NishikoriATP US Open · Q36:4 7:6
- 26/08/26WAlexandre Muller#133ATP US Open · Q26:3 6:3
- 24/08/26WJay Clarke#240ATP US Open · Q14:6 6:3 6:4
Andrey Rublev
- 04/10/26LAlex de Minaur#9ATP Beijing · QF6:1 2:6 3:6
- 03/10/26WRoman Safiullin#79ATP Beijing · R166:2 3:6 6:4
- 01/10/26WTallon Griekspoor#58ATP Beijing · R326:4 5:7 7:6
- 29/09/26LDaniil Medvedev#6ATP Hangzhou · F5:7 4:6
- 28/09/26WKyrian Jacquet#76ATP Hangzhou · SF7:6 6:1
- 27/09/26WHugo Gaston#89ATP Hangzhou · QF6:7 7:6 6:1
- 25/09/26WRinky Hijikata#85ATP Hangzhou · R166:3 6:3
- 02/09/26LDaniel Merida#44ATP US Open · R647:6 2:6 4:6 4:6
- 31/08/26WOtto Virtanen#107ATP US Open · R1286:7 6:7 6:0 6:2 7:6
- 18/08/26LNuno Borges#51ATP Cincinnati · R323:6 4:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| R. Sakamoto | A. Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 33–1963% | 19–1359% |
| Clay | 9–660% | 16–673% |
| Grass | 2–250% | 0–20% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Rei Sakamoto
- 05/10/26WSeongchan HongATP Shanghai · Q16:3 7:5
- 06/10/26WKyrian Jacquet#76ATP Shanghai · Q27:6 4:6 7:6
- 07/10/26WMarco Trungelliti#90ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 7:5
Andrey Rublev
First match in this tournament.