Challenger FlorenceChallenger 50Round of 32claybest of three sets

Sakellaridis vs Clarke 2:1: result and our tips

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Dimitris SakellaridisATP #555Elo 1546clay 1559
2:1final7:5 4:6 6:2
Jay ClarkeATP #238Elo 1673clay 1655

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won58%

Where the number comes from: market alone 66% → with the players' profiles 58%

Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Sakellaridis 16 of 20, Clarke 16 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 20.5Won45%

Where the number comes from: market alone 50% → with the players' profiles 45%

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Sakellaridis 11 of 20, Clarke 14 of 20 (tour average 52%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Dimitris Sakellaridis21%
Jay Clarke79%

Elo: D. Sakellaridis 37% · J. Clarke 63%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Sakellaridis12%
2:1 D. Sakellaridis10%
2:1 J. Clarke22%
2:0 J. Clarke56%

First set

Dimitris Sakellaridis28%
Jay Clarke72%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.0 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.577%23%84%
17.567%33%76%
18.558%42%68%
19.550%50%59%
20.545%55%52%
21.539%61%47%
22.535%66%40%

Sample: 2,632 matches

Games handicap

Jay Clarke −4.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes18%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 20.0out · 30 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Dimitris SakellaridisJay Clarke
4Aces2
2Double faults6
51%First serves in58%
57%First-serve points won50%
52%Second-serve points won43%
8/15Break points converted6/11
9/15Service games held7/15
55%Service points won47%
53%Return points won46%
106Total points won91

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. SakellaridisTourJ. Clarke
Service points won57%62%61%
Return points won42%38%41%
Service games held68%76%76%
Breaks of serve34%24%30%
Aces per service game0.270.31
Double faults per game0.290.24
Sets with a tie-break6%11%
Tie-breaks won1/35/18
Wins in straight sets64%63%
Matches in the sample2166

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Dimitris Sakellaridis

  • 19/10/26WSergi Perez Contri#429Challenger Florence · Q23:6 6:4 6:3
  • 18/10/26WMattia NannelliChallenger Florence · Q17:5 6:3
  • 11/10/26LOleksandr Ovcharenko#616Challenger Catania · Q11:6 3:6
  • 06/10/26LZdenek Kolar#206Challenger Palermo · R324:6 4:6
  • 05/10/26WM. Cerny#678Challenger Palermo · Q23:6 6:1 7:6
  • 04/10/26WRobert Guna#858Challenger Palermo · Q17:5 6:4
  • 28/09/26LM. W. Donald#416Challenger Bari · Q25:7 6:7
  • 27/09/26WFilippo Francesco GarberoChallenger Bari · Q17:5 6:1
  • 21/09/26LLorenzo BertoChallenger Genoa 2 · Q26:1 5:7 4:6
  • 20/09/26WAlessandro CeppelliniChallenger Genoa 2 · Q16:3 6:2

Jay Clarke

  • 06/10/26LGabriele Piraino#392Challenger Palermo · R323:6 1:6
  • 30/09/26LJuan Cruz Martin Manzano#371Challenger Bari · R164:6 4:6
  • 29/09/26WFabrizio Andaloro#778Challenger Bari · R326:2 6:1
  • 25/09/26LCarlo Alberto Caniato#314Challenger Genoa 2 · QF0:6 0:2
  • 24/09/26WGiuseppe La Vela#531Challenger Genoa 2 · R166:1 6:2
  • 22/09/26WJohn Sperle#660Challenger Genoa 2 · R327:5 6:3
  • 19/09/26LAlejandro Moro Canas#232Challenger Biella · SF3:6 6:4 2:6
  • 18/09/26WFelix Gill#227Challenger Biella · QF6:7 6:1 6:3
  • 16/09/26WPetr Brunclik#422Challenger Biella · R166:1 7:5
  • 14/09/26WJonas Forejtek#299Challenger Biella · R323:6 6:3 6:4

Elo over the last year

Dimitris SakellaridisJay Clarke

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. SakellaridisJ. Clarke
Hard court1–325%15–1354%
Clay10–759%17–1652%
Grass0–03–260%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Jay Clarke

First match in this tournament.