Challenger Guangzhou NanshaChallenger 75Qualifying round 2hardbest of three setsqualifying

Samrej vs Demin 0:2: result and our tips

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Kasidit SamrejATP #382Elo 1668hard 1658
0:2final4:6 2:6
Yaroslav DeminATP #614Elo 1375hard 1349

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Won62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Demin: 8 matches in a row without a deciding set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 25.5Won64%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Demin: 8 matches in a row under 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Kasidit Samrej53%
Yaroslav Demin47%

Elo: K. Samrej 86% · Y. Demin 14%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 K. Samrej34%
2:1 K. Samrej20%
2:1 Y. Demin18%
2:0 Y. Demin28%

First set

Kasidit Samrej53%
Yaroslav Demin47%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.560%40%54%
21.555%45%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.542%58%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,319 matches

Games handicap

Kasidit Samrej −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes36%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 18 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Kasidit SamrejYaroslav Demin
5Aces7
5Double faults3
61%First serves in69%
73%First-serve points won83%
35%Second-serve points won56%
0/5Break points converted3/10
6/9Service games held9/9
58%Service points won75%
26%Return points won42%
52Total points won66

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

K. SamrejTourY. Demin
Service points won63%62%60%
Return points won39%38%36%
Service games held79%76%73%
Breaks of serve24%24%20%
Aces per service game0.510.40
Double faults per game0.360.40
Sets with a tie-break18%21%
Tie-breaks won9/153/4
Wins in straight sets57%75%
Matches in the sample369

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Kasidit Samrej

  • 18/10/26WNaoya Honda#597Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q14:6 6:3 7:5
  • 08/10/26LFajing Sun#296Challenger Wuning 3 · R164:6 5:7
  • 06/10/26WEnzo Aguiard#435Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:1 6:3
  • 09/09/26LYuta Shimizu#376Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R164:6 4:6
  • 08/09/26WSidharth Rawat#671Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R326:2 6:7 6:2
  • 06/09/26LIlia Simakin#143Challenger Zhangjiagang · F3:6 1:6
  • 05/09/26WChun Hsin Tseng#217Challenger Zhangjiagang · SF6:3 7:6
  • 04/09/26WEnzo Aguiard#435Challenger Zhangjiagang · QF6:4 7:6
  • 03/09/26WBernard Tomic#180Challenger Zhangjiagang · R167:5 7:6
  • 01/09/26WHiroki Moriya#480Challenger Zhangjiagang · R326:1 7:6

Yaroslav Demin

  • 18/10/26WAlexander Binda#465Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q16:3 7:6
  • 07/10/26LAkira Santillan#309Challenger Wuning 3 · R163:6 3:6
  • 05/10/26WBeibit Zhukayev#526Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:4 6:4
  • 13/09/26LHanyi Liu#822Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · Q13:6 3:6
  • 02/08/26LSidharth Rawat#671Challenger Istanbul 2 · Q14:6 2:6
  • 19/07/26LConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine#490Challenger Segovia · Q15:7 3:6
  • 02/04/26LJonas Forejtek#299Challenger Menorca · R321:6 6:7
  • 01/04/26WChristoph Negritu#725Challenger Menorca · Q27:6 7:5
  • 30/03/26WMichael Vrbensky#668Challenger Menorca · Q15:7 7:6 7:5
  • 07/09/25LMassimo Giunta#365Challenger Biella · Q13:6 1:6

Elo over the last year

Kasidit SamrejYaroslav Demin

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

K. SamrejY. Demin
Hard court20–1557%2–433%
Clay0–02–167%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Kasidit Samrej

Yaroslav Demin