Samrej vs Noguchi 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: K. Samrej 45% · R. Noguchi 55%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 71% | 29% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 63% | 37% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 56% | 44% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 51% | 50% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 44% | 56% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 61% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 37% | 63% | 35% |
Sample: 5,126 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 22.0out · 28 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Kasidit Samrej | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aces | 10 |
| 5 | Double faults | 3 |
| 65% | First serves in | 65% |
| 68% | First-serve points won | 80% |
| 61% | Second-serve points won | 44% |
| 2/5 | Break points converted | 2/4 |
| 12/14 | Service games held | 11/13 |
| 66% | Service points won | 67% |
| 33% | Return points won | 34% |
| 83 | Total points won | 81 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| K. Samrej | Tour | R. Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 60% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 79% | 76% | 72% |
| Breaks of serve | 24% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.51 | 0.12 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.37 | 0.16 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 16% | 12% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 7/13 | 7/18 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 57% | |
| Matches in the sample | 36 | 65 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Kasidit Samrej
- 19/10/26LYaroslav Demin#614Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q24:6 2:6
- 18/10/26WNaoya Honda#597Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q14:6 6:3 7:5
- 08/10/26LFajing Sun#296Challenger Wuning 3 · R164:6 5:7
- 06/10/26WEnzo Aguiard#435Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:1 6:3
- 09/09/26LYuta Shimizu#376Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R164:6 4:6
- 08/09/26WSidharth Rawat#671Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R326:2 6:7 6:2
- 06/09/26LIlia Simakin#143Challenger Zhangjiagang · F3:6 1:6
- 05/09/26WChun Hsin Tseng#217Challenger Zhangjiagang · SF6:3 7:6
- 04/09/26WEnzo Aguiard#435Challenger Zhangjiagang · QF6:4 7:6
- 03/09/26WBernard Tomic#180Challenger Zhangjiagang · R167:5 7:6
Rio Noguchi
- 05/10/26LAlexandre Muller#131ATP Shanghai · Q13:6 6:4 1:6
- 23/09/26LDalibor Svrcina#119ATP Hangzhou · Q24:6 1:6
- 22/09/26WMasamichi Imamura#427ATP Hangzhou · Q16:1 6:4
- 18/09/26LPavel Kotov#172Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · QF1:6 6:7
- 16/09/26WColin Sinclair#481Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R166:3 6:3
- 14/09/26WKaichi Uchida#417Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R323:6 6:2 6:3
- 09/09/26LOmar Jasika#388Challenger Shanghai · R162:6 5:7
- 07/09/26WRigele TE#734Challenger Shanghai · R327:6 6:2
- 25/08/26LYunchaokete Bu#91ATP US Open · Q16:4 4:6 2:6
- 19/08/26LAlan Magadan#504Challenger Cancun · Q23:6 6:7
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| K. Samrej | R. Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 20–1557% | 33–2260% |
| Clay | 0–0 | 1–233% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 3–443% |
Head to head
K. Samrej 1–1 R. Noguchi
- 21/04/25Winner: Rio Noguchi4:6 4:6
- 10/11/24Winner: Kasidit Samrej3:6 7:5 6:4
Road through the tournament
Kasidit Samrej
- 18/10/26WNaoya Honda#597Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q14:6 6:3 7:5
- 19/10/26LYaroslav Demin#614Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q24:6 2:6
Rio Noguchi
First match in this tournament.