Samsonova vs Watson 1:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Over 17.5 games in recent matches: Samsonova 19 of 20, Watson 17 of 19 (tour average 72%); Samsonova: 17 matches in a row over 17.5 games
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Samsonova 14 of 20, Watson 9 of 19 (tour average 44%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: L. Samsonova 83% · H. Watson 17%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 19.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 20.4
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5 | 83% | 17% | 89% |
| 16.5 | 72% | 28% | 82% |
| 17.5 | 62% | 38% | 72% |
| 18.5 | 52% | 48% | 63% |
| 19.5 | 44% | 56% | 55% |
| 20.5 | 36% | 64% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 33% | 67% | 44% |
Sample: 1,004 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 22%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Under 19.0out · 33 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Liudmila Samsonova | Heather Watson | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aces | 0 |
| 8 | Double faults | 6 |
| 76% | First serves in | 68% |
| 67% | First-serve points won | 65% |
| 39% | Second-serve points won | 55% |
| 4/7 | Break points converted | 3/11 |
| 13/16 | Service games held | 12/16 |
| 60% | Service points won | 62% |
| 38% | Return points won | 40% |
| 106 | Total points won | 106 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Samsonova | Tour | H. Watson | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 57% | 56% | 57% |
| Return points won | 42% | 44% | 43% |
| Service games held | 68% | 63% | 66% |
| Breaks of serve | 32% | 37% | 34% |
| Aces per service game | 0.25 | 0.35 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.42 | 0.48 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 10% | 7% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 5/11 | 3/3 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 60% | |
| Matches in the sample | 46 | 19 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Liudmila Samsonova
- 19/10/26LLilli Tagger#57WTA Osaka · R323:6 3:6
- 14/10/26LElina Svitolina#6WTA Wuhan · R322:6 7:5 2:6
- 13/10/26WKateřina Siniaková#86WTA Wuhan · R646:1 5:7 6:2
- 04/10/26LKarolína Muchová#7WTA Beijing · R326:4 4:6 2:6
- 02/10/26WLinda Fruhvirtova#158WTA Beijing · R646:2 3:6 6:3
- 19/09/26LPeyton Stearns#37WTA Guadalajara · SF6:7 2:6
- 17/09/26WMarta Kostyuk#10WTA Guadalajara · QF4:6 6:2 7:5
- 17/09/26WKayla Day#119WTA Guadalajara · R167:6 2:6 7:6
- 15/09/26WElsa Jacquemot#157WTA Guadalajara · R327:6 6:2
- 31/08/26LMaya Joint#90WTA US Open · R1286:3 2:6 2:6
Heather Watson
- 17/10/26LEmerson Jones#134WTA Osaka · Q13:6 3:6
- 28/08/26LHarriet Dart#117WTA US Open · Q36:2 4:6 1:6
- 26/08/26WAngela Fita Boluda#222WTA US Open · Q26:4 5:7 7:6
- 24/08/26WClaire Liu#95WTA US Open · Q14:6 6:2 6:4
- 01/08/26LAnna Blinkova#72WTA Toronto · Q12:6 5:7
- 26/07/26LJulieta Pareja#228WTA Washington · Q24:6 6:3 5:7
- 25/07/26WKamilla Rakhimova#67WTA Washington · R167:6 7:6
- 25/06/26LMaria Timofeeva#70WTA Wimbledon · Q36:3 2:6 1:6
- 24/06/26WTatiana Prozorova#120WTA Wimbledon · Q25:7 6:3 7:5
- 23/06/26WMaiar Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz#52WTA Wimbledon · Q16:2 6:2
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Samsonova | H. Watson | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 15–1648% | 7–654% |
| Clay | 3–538% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 3–443% | 3–350% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.