Challenger PalermoChallenger 50Round of 16claybest of three sets

Sanchez Jover vs Giustino 2:1: result and our tips

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Carlos Sanchez JoverATP #335Elo 1640clay 1637
2:1final2:6 6:2 6:3
Lorenzo GiustinoATP #216Elo 1721clay 1714

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won59%

Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 59%

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Sanchez Jover 17 of 20, Giustino 13 of 20 (tour average 59%)

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: GiustinoWon55%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Sanchez Jover lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Giustino won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Lost31%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 31%

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Sanchez Jover 8 of 20, Giustino 9 of 20 (tour average 30%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Carlos Sanchez Jover45%
Lorenzo Giustino55%

Elo: C. Sanchez Jover 39% · L. Giustino 61%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Sanchez Jover26%
2:1 C. Sanchez Jover18%
2:1 L. Giustino20%
2:0 L. Giustino35%

First set

Carlos Sanchez Jover46%
Lorenzo Giustino54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.576%24%76%
18.567%33%68%
19.559%41%59%
20.553%47%52%
21.547%53%47%
22.542%58%40%
23.539%61%36%

Sample: 4,559 matches

Games handicap

Lorenzo Giustino −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes22%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 25 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Carlos Sanchez JoverLorenzo Giustino
5Aces2
2Double faults2
59%First serves in53%
59%First-serve points won74%
53%Second-serve points won29%
6/10Break points converted4/8
8/12Service games held7/13
57%Service points won53%
47%Return points won43%
81Total points won74

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. Sanchez JoverTourL. Giustino
Service points won58%62%61%
Return points won43%38%39%
Service games held69%76%76%
Breaks of serve33%24%26%
Aces per service game0.170.36
Double faults per game0.220.29
Sets with a tie-break15%17%
Tie-breaks won10/1717/27
Wins in straight sets56%63%
Matches in the sample4867

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Lorenzo Giustino

Elo over the last year

Carlos Sanchez JoverLorenzo Giustino

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. Sanchez JoverL. Giustino
Hard court0–10%16–964%
Clay27–2057%22–1954%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Lorenzo Giustino