Challenger BragaChallenger 75Round of 16claybest of three sets

Schoen vs Alcala Gurri 0:2: result and our tips

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Patrick SchoenATP #368Elo 1702clay 1701
0:2final1:6 0:6
Max Alcala GurriATP #138Elo 1846clay 1851

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: Alcala GurriWon70%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 70%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Alcala Gurri: 8 wins in a row; Alcala Gurri won 8 of the last 10 matches

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: Alcala GurriWon65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Alcala Gurri: 6 matches in a row winning the first set

  • Total Games: Under 21.5Won56%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 49% → with the players' profiles 56%

    Under 21.5 games in recent matches: Schoen 5 of 7, Alcala Gurri 15 of 20 (tour average 53%); Alcala Gurri: 5 matches in a row under 21.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Won44%

Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 44%

Under 19.5 games in recent matches: Schoen 4 of 7, Alcala Gurri 13 of 20 (tour average 41%); Alcala Gurri: 5 matches in a row under 19.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Patrick Schoen30%
Max Alcala Gurri70%

Elo: P. Schoen 30% · M. Alcala Gurri 70%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 P. Schoen16%
2:1 P. Schoen14%
2:1 M. Alcala Gurri23%
2:0 M. Alcala Gurri47%

First set

Patrick Schoen35%
Max Alcala Gurri65%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.573%28%76%
18.564%36%68%
19.556%44%59%
20.551%49%52%
21.544%56%47%
22.539%61%40%
23.537%64%36%

Sample: 3,810 matches

Games handicap

Max Alcala Gurri −3.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes20%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 20.5out · 13 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Patrick SchoenMax Alcala Gurri
0Aces1
3Double faults2
41%First serves in69%
57%First-serve points won61%
20%Second-serve points won69%
0/1Break points converted5/8
1/6Service games held7/7
35%Service points won64%
37%Return points won65%
31Total points won55

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

P. SchoenTourM. Alcala Gurri
Service points won62%62%61%
Return points won42%38%46%
Service games held77%76%74%
Breaks of serve32%24%42%
Aces per service game0.370.10
Double faults per game0.190.24
Sets with a tie-break7%8%
Tie-breaks won1/14/8
Wins in straight sets80%74%
Matches in the sample747

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Patrick Schoen

  • 07/10/26WAndrej Nedic#244Challenger Braga · R326:1 7:6
  • 05/10/26WFilip Misolic#471Challenger Braga · Q26:1 6:2
  • 04/10/26WAlberto Barroso Campos#681Challenger Braga · Q16:1 6:3
  • 01/09/26LFacundo Mena#197Challenger Porto · R324:6 2:6
  • 31/08/26WMatyas Fuele#592Challenger Porto · Q26:4 2:6 6:4
  • 30/08/26WBoris AriasChallenger Porto · Q16:2 6:3
  • 19/07/26LMili Poljicak#286Challenger Zug · Q15:7 5:7
  • 10/08/24LEmilio Nava#122Challenger Cary · Q11:4

Max Alcala Gurri

Elo over the last year

Patrick SchoenMax Alcala Gurri

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

P. SchoenM. Alcala Gurri
Hard court0–00–20%
Clay5–271%34–1176%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Patrick Schoen

  • 04/10/26WAlberto Barroso Campos#681Challenger Braga · Q16:1 6:3
  • 05/10/26WFilip Misolic#471Challenger Braga · Q26:1 6:2
  • 07/10/26WAndrej Nedic#244Challenger Braga · R326:1 7:6

Max Alcala Gurri