ATP Almaty250Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Shevchenko vs Glinka 2:1: result and our tips

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Alexander ShevchenkoATP #108Elo 1807hard 1777
2:1final6:3 6:7(3) 7:5
Daniil GlinkaATP #156Elo 1755hard 1755

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 25.5Lost60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Shevchenko: 8 matches in a row under 25.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost60%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Shevchenko: 8 matches in a row without a deciding set

  • Tie-break in Match: NoLost55%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 55%

    No tie-break in recent matches: Shevchenko 14 of 20, Glinka 14 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost33%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 33%

Shevchenko: 4 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alexander Shevchenko57%
Daniil Glinka43%

Elo: A. Shevchenko 53% · D. Glinka 47%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Shevchenko35%
2:1 A. Shevchenko21%
2:1 D. Glinka19%
2:0 D. Glinka24%

First set

Alexander Shevchenko55%
Daniil Glinka45%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 48%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.567%33%60%
21.561%39%54%
22.554%46%46%
23.547%53%39%
24.544%56%38%
25.540%60%35%
26.535%65%30%

Sample: 5,731 matches

Games handicap

Alexander Shevchenko −1.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes44%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 23.0in · 34 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Alexander ShevchenkoDaniil Glinka
7Aces8
2Double faults2
78%First serves in63%
76%First-serve points won75%
62%Second-serve points won57%
2/7Break points converted0/1
17/17Service games held14/16
73%Service points won68%
32%Return points won27%
103Total points won94

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. ShevchenkoTourD. Glinka
Service points won63%62%63%
Return points won36%38%38%
Service games held78%76%79%
Breaks of serve19%24%24%
Aces per service game0.510.55
Double faults per game0.190.26
Sets with a tie-break22%13%
Tie-breaks won16/3218/24
Wins in straight sets54%65%
Matches in the sample6178

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alexander Shevchenko

Daniil Glinka

Elo over the last year

Alexander ShevchenkoDaniil Glinka

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. ShevchenkoD. Glinka
Hard court14–1942%38–2164%
Clay14–1254%8–753%
Grass0–20%0–40%

Head to head

A. Shevchenko 1–0 D. Glinka

  • 12/02/26Winner: Alexander Shevchenko6:3 6:7 6:1

See also