Shimabukuro vs Safiullin 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Shimabukuro lost 0-2 in 8 of the last 20 matches, Safiullin won 2-0 in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%)
Other tips
- Total Games: Under 22.5Lost61%
Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 61%
Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Shimabukuro 14 of 20, Safiullin 14 of 20 (tour average 55%); Shimabukuro: 5 matches in a row under 22.5 games
Where the number comes from: market alone 31% → with the players' profiles 36%
Safiullin: 3 matches in a row with a tie-break
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: S. Shimabukuro 21% · R. Safiullin 79%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 82% | 18% | 83% |
| 18.5 | 73% | 27% | 75% |
| 19.5 | 63% | 37% | 67% |
| 20.5 | 53% | 47% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 46% | 54% | 53% |
| 22.5 | 39% | 62% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 32% | 68% | 39% |
Sample: 2,087 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 21.0out · 33 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Sho Shimabukuro | Roman Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Aces | 18 |
| 1 | Double faults | 5 |
| 65% | First serves in | 66% |
| 74% | First-serve points won | 73% |
| 56% | Second-serve points won | 59% |
| 3/6 | Break points converted | 1/4 |
| 15/16 | Service games held | 13/16 |
| 67% | Service points won | 68% |
| 32% | Return points won | 33% |
| 100 | Total points won | 99 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| S. Shimabukuro | Tour | R. Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 78% | 76% | 83% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 24% |
| Aces per service game | 0.53 | 0.49 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.26 | 0.20 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 16% | 18% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 17/27 | 16/27 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 56% | |
| Matches in the sample | 70 | 58 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Sho Shimabukuro
- 07/10/26LMiomir Kecmanovic#57ATP Shanghai · R1282:6 4:6
- 01/10/26LDenis Shapovalov#47ATP Tokyo · R325:7 1:6
- 24/09/26LHugo Gaston#93ATP Hangzhou · R324:6 4:6
- 30/08/26LArthur Rinderknech#61ATP US Open · R1287:6 2:6 6:7 2:6
- 23/08/26LMiomir Kecmanovic#57ATP Winston Salem · R644:6 3:6
- 14/08/26LHubert Hurkacz#30ATP Cincinnati · R1282:6 4:6
- 13/08/26LJeffrey John Wolf#216ATP Cincinnati · Q23:6 6:3 5:7
- 12/08/26WHugo Dellien#118ATP Cincinnati · Q16:3 6:1
- 03/08/26LMarin Cilic#84ATP Montreal · R1286:7 1:6
- 01/08/26WNicolai Budkov Kjaer#187ATP Montreal · Q16:3 6:4
Roman Safiullin
- 18/10/26WIlia Simakin#143ATP Almaty · Q27:6 6:1
- 17/10/26WIlya Ivashka#221ATP Almaty · Q16:1 6:7 6:4
- 09/10/26LFrancisco Cerúndolo#21ATP Shanghai · R646:7 3:6
- 07/10/26WRinky Hijikata#86ATP Shanghai · R1287:5 6:3
- 06/10/26WShintaro Mochizuki#129ATP Shanghai · Q26:2 6:3
- 05/10/26WAlexis Galarneau#182ATP Shanghai · Q16:3 6:0
- 03/10/26LAndrey Rublev#22ATP Beijing · R162:6 6:3 4:6
- 01/10/26WFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Beijing · R326:3 6:2
- 28/09/26LDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Hangzhou · SF5:7 4:6
- 27/09/26WYunchaokete Bu#91ATP Hangzhou · QF6:3 6:3
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| S. Shimabukuro | R. Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 31–2456% | 12–957% |
| Clay | 1–325% | 20–483% |
| Grass | 7–464% | 9–469% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Sho Shimabukuro
First match in this tournament.
Roman Safiullin
- 17/10/26WIlya Ivashka#221ATP Almaty · Q16:1 6:7 6:4
- 18/10/26WIlia Simakin#143ATP Almaty · Q27:6 6:1