Challenger Guangzhou NanshaChallenger 75Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying

Smith vs Schoolkate 0:2: result and our tips

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Keegan SmithATP #196Elo 1703hard 1682
0:2final6:7(4) 3:6
Tristan SchoolkateATP #169Elo 1733hard 1719

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won68%

Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 68%

Smith: 16 matches in a row over 20.5 games; Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Smith 17 of 20, Schoolkate 15 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Lost40%

Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 40%

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Smith 11 of 20, Schoolkate 11 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Keegan Smith39%
Tristan Schoolkate62%

Elo: K. Smith 45% · T. Schoolkate 55%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 K. Smith23%
2:1 K. Smith16%
2:1 T. Schoolkate22%
2:0 T. Schoolkate40%

First set

Keegan Smith42%
Tristan Schoolkate58%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.5 · 52%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.568%32%54%
21.560%40%49%
22.555%45%42%
23.548%52%37%
24.542%58%35%
25.540%61%32%
26.536%64%27%

Sample: 5,839 matches

Games handicap

Tristan Schoolkate −2.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes49%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 23.5in · 22 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Keegan SmithTristan Schoolkate
11Aces18
2Double faults5
71%First serves in73%
80%First-serve points won87%
69%Second-serve points won53%
0/1Break points converted1/1
9/10Service games held11/11
77%Service points won78%
22%Return points won23%
57Total points won63

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

K. SmithTourT. Schoolkate
Service points won67%62%66%
Return points won35%38%35%
Service games held85%76%82%
Breaks of serve17%24%19%
Aces per service game0.600.67
Double faults per game0.150.25
Sets with a tie-break25%18%
Tie-breaks won22/4214/30
Wins in straight sets56%59%
Matches in the sample6966

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Keegan Smith

Tristan Schoolkate

Elo over the last year

Keegan SmithTristan Schoolkate

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

K. SmithT. Schoolkate
Hard court29–2356%24–2450%
Clay6–367%6–460%
Grass4–450%4–450%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Keegan Smith

Tristan Schoolkate