Challenger Guangzhou NanshaChallenger 75Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Smith vs Sun: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1h 32mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Keegan Smith63%
Fajing Sun37%
Elo: K. Smith 58% · F. Sun 42%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 K. Smith41%
2:1 K. Smith22%
2:1 F. Sun16%
2:0 F. Sun22%
First set
Keegan Smith59%
Fajing Sun41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 52%
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 74% | 26% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 65% | 35% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 58% | 42% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 53% | 47% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 46% | 54% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 41% | 60% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 32% |
Sample: 5,693 matches
Games handicap
Keegan Smith −2.553%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes45%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| K. Smith | Tour | F. Sun | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 67% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 35% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 85% | 76% | 78% |
| Breaks of serve | 17% | 24% | 24% |
| Aces per service game | 0.60 | 0.33 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.15 | 0.14 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 25% | 15% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 21/41 | 7/20 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 60% | |
| Matches in the sample | 68 | 58 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Keegan Smith
- 20/10/26WMax Purcell#636Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R326:4 7:6
- 16/10/26LMartin Landaluce#67Challenger Jinan · QF6:3 2:6 3:6
- 14/10/26WVit Kopriva#66Challenger Jinan · R166:3 3:6 6:3
- 13/10/26WStefanos Sakellaridis#133Challenger Jinan · R327:6 3:6 6:3
- 06/10/26LHiroki Moriya#480Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:3 6:7 3:6
- 02/10/26LMitchell Krueger#349Challenger Columbus · QF4:6 6:7
- 01/10/26WBryce Nakashima#572Challenger Columbus · R166:4 3:6 7:5
- 29/09/26WKaylan Bigun#573Challenger Columbus · R324:6 7:6 6:2
- 23/09/26LDylan Dietrich#252Challenger San Diego 2 · R162:6 6:7
- 21/09/26WEdward Winter#401Challenger San Diego 2 · R326:3 4:6 6:2
Fajing Sun
- 20/10/26WQian Sun#890Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R326:4 6:2
- 13/10/26LJie Cui#448Challenger Jinan · R323:6 5:7
- 09/10/26LAlibek Kachmazov#361Challenger Wuning 3 · QF3:6 4:6
- 08/10/26WKasidit Samrej#382Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:4 7:5
- 06/10/26WAoran WangChallenger Wuning 3 · R326:3 1:0
- 29/09/26LBernard Tomic#180Challenger Jingshan · R324:6 7:6 3:6
- 24/09/26LRoman Safiullin#70ATP Hangzhou · R322:6 0:6
- 23/09/26WBernard Tomic#180ATP Hangzhou · Q26:4 7:5
- 22/09/26WMatthew Dellavedova#250ATP Hangzhou · Q13:6 6:1 7:6
- 17/09/26LAlexander Binda#465Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R166:4 6:7 4:6
Elo over the last year
Keegan SmithFajing Sun
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| K. Smith | F. Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 28–2355% | 27–2453% |
| Clay | 6–367% | 3–350% |
| Grass | 4–450% | 0–10% |
Head to head
K. Smith 1–0 F. Sun
- 26/04/22Winner: Keegan Smith6:4 6:2
Road through the tournament
Keegan Smith
- 20/10/26WMax Purcell#636Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R326:4 7:6