Smith vs Purcell 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 58% → with the players' profiles 66%
Smith: 14 matches in a row over 20.5 games
Other tips
- Match Winner: PurcellLost67%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Purcell won 7 of the last 10 matches
Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 38%
Smith: 4 matches in a row over 25.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: K. Smith 32% · M. Purcell 68%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.2
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 74% | 26% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 66% | 34% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 58% | 42% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 53% | 47% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 46% | 54% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 32% |
Sample: 5,254 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:0
- Total games Under 23.0out · 23 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Keegan Smith | Max Purcell | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Aces | 11 |
| 0 | Double faults | 1 |
| 86% | First serves in | 67% |
| 86% | First-serve points won | 74% |
| 44% | Second-serve points won | 56% |
| 1/5 | Break points converted | 0/1 |
| 11/11 | Service games held | 10/11 |
| 80% | Service points won | 68% |
| 32% | Return points won | 20% |
| 73 | Total points won | 60 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| K. Smith | Tour | M. Purcell | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 67% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 35% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 85% | 76% | 83% |
| Breaks of serve | 17% | 24% | 27% |
| Aces per service game | 0.59 | 0.69 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.15 | 0.19 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 26% | 7% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 21/43 | 0/2 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 89% | |
| Matches in the sample | 69 | 13 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Keegan Smith
- 16/10/26LMartin Landaluce#67Challenger Jinan · QF6:3 2:6 3:6
- 14/10/26WVit Kopriva#66Challenger Jinan · R166:3 3:6 6:3
- 13/10/26WStefanos Sakellaridis#133Challenger Jinan · R327:6 3:6 6:3
- 06/10/26LHiroki Moriya#480Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:3 6:7 3:6
- 02/10/26LMitchell Krueger#349Challenger Columbus · QF4:6 6:7
- 01/10/26WBryce Nakashima#572Challenger Columbus · R166:4 3:6 7:5
- 29/09/26WKaylan Bigun#573Challenger Columbus · R324:6 7:6 6:2
- 23/09/26LDylan Dietrich#252Challenger San Diego 2 · R162:6 6:7
- 21/09/26WEdward Winter#401Challenger San Diego 2 · R326:3 4:6 6:2
- 15/09/26LMitchell Krueger#349Challenger Tiburon · R326:7 7:6 4:6
Max Purcell
- 19/10/26WEvan Zhu#462Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q26:4 6:4
- 18/10/26WYuta Shimizu#376Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q16:3 6:1
- 06/10/26LFilip Peliwo#641Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:7 1:6
- 04/10/26WJulien de CuyperChallenger Wuning 3 · Q16:4 6:4
- 12/09/26LIlia Simakin#143Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · SF3:6 6:2 2:6
- 11/09/26WCruz Hewitt#324Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · QF7:5 6:3
- 09/09/26WBlake Ellis#445Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R166:4 6:4
- 08/09/26WRodrigo Pacheco Mendez#263Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R326:3 6:4
- 27/08/26LAndres Andrade#224Challenger Kingston 2 · QF3:6 3:6
- 26/08/26WGarrett Johns#458Challenger Kingston 2 · R166:2 6:2
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| K. Smith | M. Purcell | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 28–2454% | 9–469% |
| Clay | 6–367% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 4–450% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Keegan Smith
First match in this tournament.
Max Purcell
- 18/10/26WYuta Shimizu#376Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q16:3 6:1
- 19/10/26WEvan Zhu#462Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q26:4 6:4