Sun vs Matsuoka 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: F. Sun 43% · H. Matsuoka 58%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 69% | 31% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 61% | 39% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 56% | 44% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 49% | 52% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 43% | 57% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 41% | 60% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 37% | 63% | 32% |
Sample: 5,519 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Over 22.0in · 31 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Fajing Sun | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aces | 5 |
| 0 | Double faults | 3 |
| 71% | First serves in | 62% |
| 56% | First-serve points won | 63% |
| 53% | Second-serve points won | 38% |
| 7/7 | Break points converted | 5/11 |
| 10/15 | Service games held | 9/16 |
| 55% | Service points won | 53% |
| 47% | Return points won | 45% |
| 103 | Total points won | 98 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| F. Sun | Tour | H. Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 79% | 76% | 78% |
| Breaks of serve | 24% | 24% | 25% |
| Aces per service game | 0.33 | 0.35 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.14 | 0.26 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 15% | 14% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 7/21 | 10/24 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 67% | |
| Matches in the sample | 59 | 77 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Fajing Sun
- 22/10/26LKeegan Smith#185Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R166:3 4:6 6:7
- 20/10/26WQian Sun#890Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R326:4 6:2
- 13/10/26LJie Cui#393Challenger Jinan · R323:6 5:7
- 09/10/26LAlibek Kachmazov#360Challenger Wuning 3 · QF3:6 4:6
- 08/10/26WKasidit Samrej#368Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:4 7:5
- 06/10/26WAoran WangChallenger Wuning 3 · R326:3 1:0
- 29/09/26LBernard Tomic#179Challenger Jingshan · R324:6 7:6 3:6
- 24/09/26LRoman Safiullin#69ATP Hangzhou · R322:6 0:6
- 23/09/26WBernard Tomic#179ATP Hangzhou · Q26:4 7:5
- 22/09/26WMatthew Dellavedova#237ATP Hangzhou · Q13:6 6:1 7:6
Hayato Matsuoka
- 20/10/26LYibing Wu#107Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R322:6 3:6
- 14/10/26LAleksandar Vukic#116Challenger Jinan · R322:6 3:6
- 12/10/26WJames McCabe#255Challenger Jinan · Q26:3 6:4
- 11/10/26WQian Sun#890Challenger Jinan · Q16:2 6:7 6:4
- 23/09/26LTaro Daniel#177ATP Hangzhou · Q24:6 6:7
- 22/09/26WArthur Weber#398ATP Hangzhou · Q16:4 7:5
- 15/09/26LLloyd Harris#108Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R327:6 5:7 6:7
- 07/09/26LJake Delaney#356Challenger Shanghai · R326:2 6:7 6:7
- 01/09/26LEnzo Aguiard#438Challenger Zhangjiagang · R323:6 4:6
- 16/08/26WAziz Dougaz#379Challenger Astana · F0:6 6:1 7:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| F. Sun | H. Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 27–2552% | 43–2861% |
| Clay | 3–350% | 2–167% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 1–233% |
Head to head
F. Sun 1–1 H. Matsuoka
- 14/08/26Winner: H. Matsuoka5:7 5:7
- 06/01/26Winner: F. Sun6:2 2:6 6:2