Challenger AntofagastaChallenger 75Round of 16claybest of three sets

Tobon vs Barrios Vera 2:1: result and our tips

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Miguel TobonATP #506Elo 1549clay 1555
2:1final3:6 7:6(3) 7:6(2)
Tomas Barrios VeraATP #132Elo 1762clay 1746

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: Barrios VeraWon74%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Barrios Vera: 5 matches in a row winning the first set; Tobon lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Barrios Vera won the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Total Sets: Over 2.5Won31%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

A third set in recent matches: Tobon 9 of 20, Barrios Vera 10 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Miguel Tobon17%
Tomas Barrios Vera83%

Elo: M. Tobon 25% · T. Barrios Vera 75%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Tobon9%
2:1 M. Tobon8%
2:1 T. Barrios Vera22%
2:0 T. Barrios Vera61%

First set

Miguel Tobon25%
Tomas Barrios Vera76%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes30%
no70%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.579%21%84%
17.570%30%76%
18.560%41%68%
19.551%49%59%
20.544%56%52%
21.540%61%47%
22.534%66%40%

Sample: 2,070 matches

Games handicap

Tomas Barrios Vera −5.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes22%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 20.0out · 35 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Miguel TobonTomas Barrios Vera
12Aces2
3Double faults4
57%First serves in68%
63%First-serve points won69%
52%Second-serve points won52%
3/7Break points converted5/17
12/17Service games held13/16
59%Service points won63%
37%Return points won42%
124Total points won126

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. TobonTourT. Barrios Vera
Service points won62%62%62%
Return points won38%38%40%
Service games held76%76%77%
Breaks of serve26%24%28%
Aces per service game0.360.24
Double faults per game0.330.17
Sets with a tie-break18%15%
Tie-breaks won10/2312/26
Wins in straight sets60%66%
Matches in the sample5271

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Miguel Tobon

  • 06/10/26WThiago Cigarran#622Challenger Antofagasta · R324:6 6:4 6:1
  • 29/09/26LJuan Bautista Torres#279Challenger Curitiba · R322:6 6:3 1:6
  • 10/09/26LEdas Butvilas#199Challenger Istanbul 3 · R166:7 1:6
  • 08/09/26WKoray KirciChallenger Istanbul 3 · R326:3 6:3
  • 27/08/26LRodrigo Pacheco Mendez#266Challenger Kingston 2 · QF2:6 4:6
  • 26/08/26WJuan Pablo Ficovich#366Challenger Kingston 2 · R166:3 6:1
  • 25/08/26WPietro Orlando Fellin#628Challenger Kingston 2 · R326:2 6:1
  • 17/08/26LPaulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos#436Challenger Kingston · Q26:7 2:6
  • 16/08/26WLorenzo Claverie#889Challenger Kingston · Q16:7 6:2 7:6
  • 26/07/26LBernard Tomic#185ATP Los Cabos · R167:5 4:6 6:7

Tomas Barrios Vera

Elo over the last year

Miguel TobonTomas Barrios Vera

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. TobonT. Barrios Vera
Hard court9–950%9–853%
Clay16–1847%30–2060%
Grass0–02–250%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Miguel Tobon

Tomas Barrios Vera

See also