Challenger CaliChallenger 75Round of 16claybest of three sets
Tobon vs Mejia: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 11h 27mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Miguel Tobon30%
Nicolas Mejia70%
Elo: M. Tobon 23% · N. Mejia 77%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 M. Tobon17%
2:1 M. Tobon14%
2:1 N. Mejia23%
2:0 N. Mejia47%
First set
Miguel Tobon35%
Nicolas Mejia65%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.9
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 73% | 27% | 68% |
| 19.5 | 64% | 36% | 59% |
| 20.5 | 57% | 43% | 52% |
| 21.5 | 51% | 49% | 47% |
| 22.5 | 44% | 56% | 40% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 61% | 36% |
| 24.5 | 37% | 63% | 34% |
Sample: 3,972 matches
Games handicap
Nicolas Mejia −3.553%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes31%
tour average 27%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Tobon | Tour | N. Mejia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 75% | 76% | 78% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 25% |
| Aces per service game | 0.38 | 0.44 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.32 | 0.19 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 21% | 20% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 12/25 | 16/31 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 53% | |
| Matches in the sample | 50 | 67 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Miguel Tobon
- 21/10/26WGonzalo Villanueva#315Challenger Cali · R326:1 2:6 6:4
- 09/10/26LJuan Carlos Prado Angelo#177Challenger Antofagasta · QF2:6 2:6
- 08/10/26WTomas Barrios Vera#155Challenger Antofagasta · R163:6 7:6 7:6
- 06/10/26WThiago Cigarran#587Challenger Antofagasta · R324:6 6:4 6:1
- 29/09/26LJuan Bautista Torres#298Challenger Curitiba · R322:6 6:3 1:6
- 10/09/26LEdas Butvilas#209Challenger Istanbul 3 · R166:7 1:6
- 08/09/26WKoray KirciChallenger Istanbul 3 · R326:3 6:3
- 27/08/26LRodrigo Pacheco Mendez#263Challenger Kingston 2 · QF2:6 4:6
- 26/08/26WJuan Pablo Ficovich#369Challenger Kingston 2 · R166:3 6:1
- 25/08/26WPietro Orlando Fellin#618Challenger Kingston 2 · R326:2 6:1
Nicolas Mejia
- 21/10/26WFederico Coria#829Challenger Cali · R327:6 6:4
- 08/10/26LJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#53ATP Shanghai · R1284:6 4:6
- 06/10/26WMichael Zheng#101ATP Shanghai · Q26:3 6:4
- 05/10/26WChun Hsin Tseng#217ATP Shanghai · Q16:4
- 22/09/26LUgo Blanchet#344Challenger Saint Tropez · R321:4
- 25/08/26LLiam Draxl#197ATP US Open · Q14:6 7:6 4:6
- 19/08/26LCamilo Ugo Carabelli#75Challenger Cancun · R325:7 4:6
- 14/08/26LAdam Walton#97ATP Cincinnati · R1286:7 0:6
- 13/08/26WHenrique Rocha#105ATP Cincinnati · Q27:5 4:6 6:3
- 12/08/26WJacob Fearnley#87ATP Cincinnati · Q16:3 3:6 6:2
Elo over the last year
Miguel TobonNicolas Mejia
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Tobon | N. Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 9–950% | 18–2146% |
| Clay | 15–1747% | 17–481% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 5–271% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Miguel Tobon
- 21/10/26WGonzalo Villanueva#315Challenger Cali · R326:1 2:6 6:4
Nicolas Mejia
- 21/10/26WFederico Coria#829Challenger Cali · R327:6 6:4