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Challenger BrestChallenger 125Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Travaglia vs Herbert 2:1: result and our tips

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Stefano TravagliaATP #167Elo 1703hard 1713
2:1final6:7(3) 7:6(6) 7:6(5)
Pierre-Hugues HerbertATP #249Elo 1735hard 1741

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won60%

Where the number comes from: market alone 58% → with the players' profiles 60%

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Travaglia 14 of 20, Herbert 13 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: HerbertLost69%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 69%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Travaglia lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Won38%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Travaglia 8 of 20, Herbert 10 of 20 (tour average 35%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Stefano Travaglia31%
Pierre-Hugues Herbert69%

Elo: S. Travaglia 46% · P.-H. Herbert 54%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Travaglia18%
2:1 S. Travaglia14%
2:1 P.-H. Herbert22%
2:0 P.-H. Herbert46%

First set

Stefano Travaglia36%
Pierre-Hugues Herbert64%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 52%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.560%40%54%
21.554%46%49%
22.548%52%42%
23.542%59%37%
24.538%62%35%
25.535%65%32%

Sample: 5,016 matches

Games handicap

P.-H. Herbert −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes38%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 23.0out · 39 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Stefano TravagliaPierre-Hugues Herbert
9Aces15
2Double faults7
66%First serves in63%
76%First-serve points won88%
63%Second-serve points won53%
0/6Break points converted0/6
18/18Service games held18/18
71%Service points won75%
25%Return points won29%
129Total points won132

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. TravagliaTourP.-H. Herbert
Service points won63%62%65%
Return points won40%38%36%
Service games held76%76%82%
Breaks of serve29%24%20%
Aces per service game0.520.57
Double faults per game0.200.40
Sets with a tie-break21%18%
Tie-breaks won9/316/18
Wins in straight sets66%57%
Matches in the sample6442

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Stefano Travaglia

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Elo over the last year

Stefano TravagliaPierre-Hugues Herbert

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. TravagliaP.-H. Herbert
Hard court19–1066%14–1156%
Clay15–1845%5–838%
Grass1–150%2–250%

Head to head

S. Travaglia 0–1 P.-H. Herbert

  • 14/04/18Winner: P.-H. Herbert5:7 7:6 6:7

See also