ATP Lyon250Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Herbert vs Fritz: prediction and tips

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Pierre-Hugues HerbertATP #290Elo 1737hard 1744
-:-
Taylor FritzATP #14Elo 2123hard 2081

Our tips

Tip in 10h 41m

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Pierre-Hugues Herbert15%
Taylor Fritz85%

Elo: P.-H. Herbert 13% · T. Fritz 88%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 P.-H. Herbert8%
2:1 P.-H. Herbert7%
2:1 T. Fritz20%
2:0 T. Fritz65%

First set

Pierre-Hugues Herbert23%
Taylor Fritz78%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes27%
no73%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 56%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.579%21%75%
19.570%30%67%
20.559%41%59%
21.551%50%53%
22.544%56%45%
23.536%64%39%
24.531%69%38%

Sample: 2,109 matches

Games handicap

Taylor Fritz −4.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes43%

tour average 38%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

P.-H. HerbertTourT. Fritz
Service points won65%62%70%
Return points won36%38%35%
Service games held82%76%88%
Breaks of serve20%24%16%
Aces per service game0.571.02
Double faults per game0.410.15
Sets with a tie-break18%23%
Tie-breaks won6/1822/34
Wins in straight sets57%58%
Matches in the sample4255

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Taylor Fritz

Elo over the last year

Pierre-Hugues HerbertTaylor Fritz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

P.-H. HerbertT. Fritz
Hard court14–1156%25–1464%
Clay5–838%0–20%
Grass2–250%11–379%

Head to head

P.-H. Herbert 1–0 T. Fritz

  • 21/03/18Winner: Pierre-Hugues Herbert7:6 6:4

Road through the tournament

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Taylor Fritz

First match in this tournament.