WTA OsakaWTA 250Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Valentova vs Tagger 0:2: result and our tips

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Tereza ValentovaWTA #88Elo 1881hard 1871
0:2final5:7 3:6
Lilli TaggerWTA #57Elo 1823hard 1819

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Tereza Valentova49%
Lilli Tagger51%

Elo: T. Valentova 57% · L. Tagger 43%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Valentova31%
2:1 T. Valentova19%
2:1 L. Tagger19%
2:0 L. Tagger32%

First set

Tereza Valentova50%
Lilli Tagger50%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%64%
19.561%39%56%
20.554%46%49%
21.548%52%44%
22.543%57%38%
23.538%62%34%
24.536%64%32%

Sample: 2,283 matches

Games handicap

Lilli Tagger −0.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.0in · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Tereza ValentovaLilli Tagger
1Aces5
8Double faults3
62%First serves in60%
67%First-serve points won83%
37%Second-serve points won56%
1/2Break points converted3/7
7/10Service games held10/11
55%Service points won72%
28%Return points won45%
59Total points won77

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. ValentovaTourL. Tagger
Service points won55%56%60%
Return points won46%44%43%
Service games held64%63%71%
Breaks of serve41%37%34%
Aces per service game0.220.38
Double faults per game0.390.25
Sets with a tie-break13%12%
Tie-breaks won7/147/14
Wins in straight sets63%73%
Matches in the sample4651

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Tereza Valentova

  • 20/10/26WShuai Zhang#85WTA Osaka · R326:2 1:6 6:4
  • 29/08/26LKatie Volynets#73WTA 125 Philadelphia · F3:6 5:7
  • 28/08/26WJulia Grabher#102WTA 125 Philadelphia · SF6:3 6:1
  • 27/08/26WKylie Collins#323WTA 125 Philadelphia · QF6:1 6:2
  • 26/08/26WFangran Tian#249WTA 125 Philadelphia · R166:3 6:1
  • 24/08/26WAriana Arseneault#352WTA 125 Philadelphia · R327:6 6:1
  • 17/08/26LElina Svitolina#6WTA Cincinnati · R646:3 6:7 0:6
  • 14/08/26WMary Stoiana#114WTA Cincinnati · R1286:2 7:6
  • 03/08/26LTaylor Townsend#89WTA Toronto · R1284:6 5:7
  • 25/07/26LDaria Snigur#40WTA Prague · SF6:7 3:6

Lilli Tagger

Elo over the last year

Tereza ValentovaLilli Tagger

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. ValentovaL. Tagger
Hard court20–1263%24–1267%
Clay5–456%6–746%
Grass2–340%0–20%

Head to head

T. Valentova 1–0 L. Tagger

  • 01/05/26Winner: Tereza Valentova7:5 7:5

Road through the tournament

Tereza Valentova

Lilli Tagger