ATP Lyon250Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Virtanen vs Sachko 0:2: result and our tips

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Otto VirtanenATP #121Elo 1813hard 1787
0:2final4:6 4:6
Vitaliy SachkoATP #175Elo 1738hard 1688

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost57%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Virtanen: 4 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Lost42%

Where the number comes from: market alone 40% → with the players' profiles 42%

Virtanen: 4 matches in a row over 23.5 games; Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Virtanen 12 of 20, Sachko 8 of 20 (tour average 39%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Otto Virtanen71%
Vitaliy Sachko29%

Elo: O. Virtanen 64% · V. Sachko 36%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 O. Virtanen48%
2:1 O. Virtanen23%
2:1 V. Sachko13%
2:0 V. Sachko17%

First set

Otto Virtanen66%
Vitaliy Sachko34%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.571%29%68%
20.563%37%59%
21.556%44%54%
22.549%51%46%
23.542%59%39%
24.539%62%38%
25.535%65%34%

Sample: 4,541 matches

Games handicap

Otto Virtanen −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes43%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 20 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Otto VirtanenVitaliy Sachko
9Aces6
2Double faults1
60%First serves in67%
57%First-serve points won69%
53%Second-serve points won67%
1/7Break points converted3/8
7/10Service games held9/10
56%Service points won68%
32%Return points won44%
64Total points won78

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

O. VirtanenTourV. Sachko
Service points won66%62%61%
Return points won36%38%40%
Service games held84%76%73%
Breaks of serve21%24%29%
Aces per service game0.830.36
Double faults per game0.270.20
Sets with a tie-break27%14%
Tie-breaks won19/4310/20
Wins in straight sets67%55%
Matches in the sample6361

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Otto Virtanen

Vitaliy Sachko

Elo over the last year

Otto VirtanenVitaliy Sachko

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

O. VirtanenV. Sachko
Hard court18–1358%8–1142%
Clay7–1041%25–1661%
Grass11–473%0–10%

Head to head

O. Virtanen 1–1 V. Sachko

  • 22/01/25Winner: Vitaliy Sachko1:6 6:3 3:6
  • 31/03/23Winner: Otto Virtanen6:2 6:4