Challenger CataniaChallenger 50Qualifying round 2claybest of three setsqualifying

Vrba vs Siniakov 1:2: result and our tips

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Jakub VrbaElo 1526clay 1541
1:2final5:7 6:3 6:7(2)
Daniel SiniakovATP #519Elo 1472clay 1478

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jakub Vrba35%
Daniel Siniakov65%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Vrba19%
2:1 J. Vrba15%
2:1 D. Siniakov23%
2:0 D. Siniakov43%

First set

Jakub Vrba39%
Daniel Siniakov62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 50%market (no margin): 48%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.571%29%68%
19.563%37%59%
20.556%44%52%
21.550%50%47%
22.544%56%40%
23.540%61%36%
24.537%63%34%

Sample: 4,503 matches

Games handicap

Daniel Siniakov −3.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes28%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 21.5in · 34 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Jakub VrbaDaniel Siniakov
6Aces1
2Double faults7
59%First serves in59%
59%First-serve points won66%
52%Second-serve points won43%
6/17Break points converted6/19
11/17Service games held10/16
56%Service points won56%
44%Return points won44%
117Total points won118

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. VrbaTourD. Siniakov
Service points won63%62%60%
Return points won38%38%41%
Service games held74%76%70%
Breaks of serve25%24%30%
Aces per service game0.600.27
Double faults per game0.350.34
Sets with a tie-break8%21%
Tie-breaks won1/13/9
Wins in straight sets0%63%
Matches in the sample519

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jakub Vrba

  • 11/10/26WDragos Nicolae Madaras#488Challenger Catania · Q14:6 6:1 6:2
  • 21/09/26LSpencer Johnson#443Challenger San Diego 2 · Q22:6 4:6
  • 20/09/26WBlaise Bicknell#421Challenger San Diego 2 · Q16:3 3:1
  • 27/07/26LPablo Martinez Gomez#686Challenger Liberec · Q21:6 3:6
  • 26/07/26WRudolf Molleker#535Challenger Liberec · Q14:6 7:6 6:4

Daniel Siniakov

Elo over the last year

Jakub VrbaDaniel Siniakov

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. VrbaD. Siniakov
Hard court1–150%0–10%
Clay2–167%8–1044%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Jakub Vrba

Daniel Siniakov