Challenger MaiaChallenger 125Round of 32claybest of three sets

Vrbensky vs Brancaccio 2:0: result and our tips

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Michael VrbenskyATP #754Elo 1422clay 1408
2:0final6:3 6:1
Raul BrancaccioATP #231Elo 1613clay 1609

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Lost60%

Where the number comes from: market alone 63% → with the players' profiles 60%

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Vrbensky 14 of 20, Brancaccio 18 of 20 (tour average 59%); Brancaccio: 8 matches in a row over 19.5 games

Other tips

  • Match Winner: BrancaccioLost71%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 71%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Vrbensky lost 8 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Lost34%

Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 34%

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Vrbensky 10 of 20, Brancaccio 8 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Michael Vrbensky28%
Raul Brancaccio72%

Elo: M. Vrbensky 24% · R. Brancaccio 76%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Vrbensky16%
2:1 M. Vrbensky13%
2:1 R. Brancaccio23%
2:0 R. Brancaccio48%

First set

Michael Vrbensky34%
Raul Brancaccio66%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 47%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.577%24%76%
18.568%32%68%
19.560%41%59%
20.553%47%52%
21.547%53%47%
22.541%59%40%
23.537%63%36%

Sample: 3,678 matches

Games handicap

Raul Brancaccio −3.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes24%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.0in · 16 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Michael VrbenskyRaul Brancaccio
3Aces0
2Double faults2
56%First serves in58%
56%First-serve points won50%
61%Second-serve points won25%
6/10Break points converted2/11
6/8Service games held2/8
58%Service points won40%
60%Return points won42%
66Total points won46

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. VrbenskyTourR. Brancaccio
Service points won59%62%60%
Return points won39%38%39%
Service games held71%76%73%
Breaks of serve24%24%25%
Aces per service game0.360.25
Double faults per game0.360.26
Sets with a tie-break19%14%
Tie-breaks won6/158/19
Wins in straight sets57%50%
Matches in the sample3457

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Michael Vrbensky

Raul Brancaccio

Elo over the last year

Michael VrbenskyRaul Brancaccio

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. VrbenskyR. Brancaccio
Hard court9–756%4–640%
Clay5–1328%22–2448%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Michael Vrbensky

Raul Brancaccio

First match in this tournament.

See also