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Challenger Hersonissos 3Challenger 50Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Angelini vs Bertrand 1:2: result and our tips

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Lorenzo AngeliniATP #534Elo 1430hard 1499
1:2final3:6 6:4 4:6
Robin BertrandATP #405Elo 1483hard 1509

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.5Lost62%

Where the number comes from: market alone 55% → with the players' profiles 62%

Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Angelini 13 of 20, Bertrand 15 of 20 (tour average 58%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: BertrandWon70%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 70%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Angelini lost 8 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Angelini 14 of 20, Bertrand 16 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 18.5Lost36%

Where the number comes from: market alone 27% → with the players' profiles 36%

Under 18.5 games in recent matches: Angelini 9 of 20, Bertrand 12 of 20 (tour average 29%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Lorenzo Angelini29%
Robin Bertrand71%

Elo: L. Angelini 49% · R. Bertrand 52%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Angelini16%
2:1 L. Angelini13%
2:1 R. Bertrand22%
2:0 R. Bertrand49%

First set

Lorenzo Angelini34%
Robin Bertrand66%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 50%market (no margin): 48%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.572%28%79%
18.563%37%71%
19.556%44%62%
20.550%50%54%
21.544%57%49%
22.538%62%42%
23.536%64%37%

Sample: 4,654 matches

Games handicap

R. Bertrand −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 29 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Lorenzo AngeliniRobin Bertrand
1Aces0
5Double faults0
70%First serves in66%
61%First-serve points won66%
44%Second-serve points won55%
4/5Break points converted5/10
9/14Service games held11/15
56%Service points won62%
38%Return points won44%
80Total points won92

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. AngeliniTourR. Bertrand
Service points won56%62%57%
Return points won42%38%41%
Service games held64%76%66%
Breaks of serve33%24%28%
Aces per service game0.110.20
Double faults per game0.280.31
Sets with a tie-break7%12%
Tie-breaks won4/44/9
Wins in straight sets58%55%
Matches in the sample2632

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Lorenzo Angelini

  • 09/11/26WVladyslav Orlov#513Challenger Hersonissos 3 · Q27:6 6:2
  • 08/11/26WPetros TsitsipasChallenger Hersonissos 3 · Q17:6
  • 11/10/26LKai Wehnelt#645Challenger Catania · Q12:6 0:6
  • 04/10/26LOleksandr Ovcharenko#626Challenger Palermo · Q14:6 4:6
  • 30/09/26LGianluca Cadenasso#214Challenger Bari · R167:5 3:6 0:6
  • 28/09/26WGarrett Johns#441Challenger Bari · R324:6 7:6 7:5
  • 06/09/26LLorenzo Rottoli#796Challenger Genoa · Q13:6 3:6
  • 30/08/26LLaurent Lokoli#340Challenger Como · Q12:6 1:6
  • 04/08/26LPyotr Nesterov#282Challenger Plovdiv 2 · R325:7 1:6
  • 26/07/26LMaxime Janvier#606Challenger San Marino · Q16:4 4:6 2:6

Robin Bertrand

  • 28/09/26LAnton Matusevich#330Challenger Porto 2 · Q23:6 7:6 0:6
  • 27/09/26WGuilherme ValdoleirosChallenger Porto 2 · Q16:1 6:2
  • 11/09/26LMark Lajal#161Challenger Cassis · QF3:6 0:6
  • 10/09/26WRaphael Perot#384Challenger Cassis · R166:1 6:0
  • 08/09/26WMathieu ScagliaChallenger Cassis · R326:2 6:4
  • 04/08/26LAlejandro Moro Canas#242Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · R325:7 4:6
  • 16/06/26LRaphael Perot#384Challenger Royan · R326:7 5:7
  • 09/06/26LNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo#151Challenger Lyon · R323:6 2:6
  • 04/06/26LGiles Hussey#327Challenger Centurion 2 · R167:5 3:6 3:6
  • 02/06/26WPatrick Zahraj#536Challenger Centurion 2 · R326:2 6:2

Elo over the last year

Lorenzo AngeliniRobin Bertrand

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. AngeliniR. Bertrand
Hard court6–275%11–1641%
Clay6–1233%0–50%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Lorenzo Angelini

Robin Bertrand

First match in this tournament.

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