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Challenger Brisbane 3Challenger 75Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Dellavedova vs Gorzny: prediction and tips

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Matthew DellavedovaATP #224Elo 1466hard 1456
-:-
Sebastian GorznyATP #403Elo 1714hard 1699

Our tips

Tip in 4h 44m

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Matthew Dellavedova46%
Sebastian Gorzny54%

Elo: M. Dellavedova 20% · S. Gorzny 80%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Dellavedova28%
2:1 M. Dellavedova18%
2:1 S. Gorzny20%
2:0 S. Gorzny34%

First set

Matthew Dellavedova47%
Sebastian Gorzny53%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%62%
20.561%39%54%
21.555%45%49%
22.548%52%42%
23.542%58%37%
24.541%60%35%
25.537%63%32%

Sample: 5,647 matches

Games handicap

S. Gorzny −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. DellavedovaTourS. Gorzny
Service points won59%62%63%
Return points won35%38%38%
Service games held70%76%80%
Breaks of serve22%24%23%
Aces per service game0.280.59
Double faults per game0.110.30
Sets with a tie-break5%11%
Tie-breaks won1/33/7
Wins in straight sets44%46%
Matches in the sample2524

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Matthew Dellavedova

  • 10/11/26WThomas Fancutt#690Challenger Brisbane 3 · R326:1 6:7 7:6
  • 29/09/26LAndre Ilagan#196Challenger Jingshan · R324:6 3:6
  • 22/09/26LFajing Sun#297ATP Hangzhou · Q16:3 1:6 6:7
  • 18/09/26LHunter Heck#601Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · QF4:6 2:6
  • 16/09/26WEnzo Aguiard#423Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R166:3 6:1
  • 15/09/26WGrigoriy Lomakin#860Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R324:6 6:3 6:3
  • 07/09/26LTaro Daniel#172Challenger Shanghai · R323:6 1:6
  • 03/09/26LIlia Simakin#147Challenger Zhangjiagang · R165:7 2:6
  • 01/09/26WLuca Castelnuovo#434Challenger Zhangjiagang · R324:6 6:3 4:1
  • 29/04/26LLiam Broady#215Challenger Jiujiang · R324:6 0:6

Sebastian Gorzny

Elo over the last year

Matthew DellavedovaSebastian Gorzny

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. DellavedovaS. Gorzny
Hard court8–1436%13–1154%
Clay1–233%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Matthew Dellavedova

Sebastian Gorzny

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