WTA TokyoWTA 500Qualifying round 2hardbest of three setsqualifying

Birrell vs Kasatkina 0:2: result and our tips

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Kimberly BirrellWTA #41Elo 1816hard 1812
0:2final3:6 4:6
Daria KasatkinaWTA #75Elo 1806hard 1775

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Kimberly Birrell53%
Daria Kasatkina47%

Elo: K. Birrell 55% · D. Kasatkina 45%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 K. Birrell32%
2:1 K. Birrell19%
2:1 D. Kasatkina19%
2:0 D. Kasatkina30%

First set

Kimberly Birrell51%
Daria Kasatkina49%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%64%
19.561%39%56%
20.554%46%49%
21.549%52%44%
22.543%57%38%
23.539%62%34%
24.536%64%32%

Sample: 2,331 matches

Games handicap

Kimberly Birrell −0.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 19 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Kimberly BirrellDaria Kasatkina
2Aces1
2Double faults7
85%First serves in81%
59%First-serve points won66%
43%Second-serve points won46%
2/4Break points converted4/7
5/9Service games held8/10
56%Service points won62%
38%Return points won44%
53Total points won63

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

K. BirrellTourD. Kasatkina
Service points won57%56%53%
Return points won44%44%48%
Service games held66%63%56%
Breaks of serve38%37%45%
Aces per service game0.170.17
Double faults per game0.460.55
Sets with a tie-break15%13%
Tie-breaks won9/226/15
Wins in straight sets56%52%
Matches in the sample6045

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Kimberly Birrell

Daria Kasatkina

Elo over the last year

Kimberly BirrellDaria Kasatkina

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

K. BirrellD. Kasatkina
Hard court28–1762%10–1343%
Clay1–420%11–569%
Grass5–550%2–433%

Head to head

K. Birrell 1–0 D. Kasatkina

  • 31/12/18Winner: Kimberly Birrell5:7 6:4 7:6

Road through the tournament

Kimberly Birrell

Daria Kasatkina