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ATP Basel500Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Brunold vs Borges 0:2: result and our tips

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Mika BrunoldATP #191Elo 1857hard 1829
0:2final3:6 1:6
Nuno BorgesATP #53Elo 1976hard 1934

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost59%

Where the number comes from: market alone 56% → with the players' profiles 59%

Brunold: 8 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesLost45%

Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 45%

Brunold: 4 matches in a row with a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mika Brunold33%
Nuno Borges67%

Elo: M. Brunold 35% · N. Borges 65%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Brunold20%
2:1 M. Brunold15%
2:1 N. Borges23%
2:0 N. Borges43%

First set

Mika Brunold38%
Nuno Borges62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 49%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.573%27%68%
20.565%35%60%
21.559%41%54%
22.551%49%46%
23.544%56%40%
24.540%60%38%
25.537%63%35%

Sample: 5,332 matches

Games handicap

N. Borges −2.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes45%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 23.0in · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Mika BrunoldNuno Borges
1Aces3
0Double faults1
76%First serves in70%
52%First-serve points won73%
30%Second-serve points won57%
1/6Break points converted5/8
3/8Service games held7/8
46%Service points won68%
32%Return points won54%
34Total points won54

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. BrunoldTourN. Borges
Service points won63%62%66%
Return points won40%38%35%
Service games held79%76%84%
Breaks of serve28%24%18%
Aces per service game0.270.54
Double faults per game0.190.17
Sets with a tie-break19%22%
Tie-breaks won15/2112/32
Wins in straight sets61%70%
Matches in the sample4858

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mika Brunold

Nuno Borges

Elo over the last year

Mika BrunoldNuno Borges

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. BrunoldN. Borges
Hard court9–469%16–1552%
Clay24–1169%9–950%
Grass0–05–456%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Mika Brunold

Nuno Borges

First match in this tournament.