Bublik vs Khachanov 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 42% → with the players' profiles 55%
A tie-break in recent matches: Bublik 14 of 20, Khachanov 9 of 20 (tour average 39%); Bublik: 5 matches in a row with a tie-break
Other tips
- Total Games: Over 22.5Won61%
Where the number comes from: market alone 51% → with the players' profiles 61%
Bublik: 5 matches in a row over 22.5 games
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Bublik lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches, Khachanov won the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: A. Bublik 56% · K. Khachanov 44%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 24.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 25.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 75% | 25% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 67% | 33% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 61% | 39% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 53% | 47% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 46% | 54% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 44% | 56% | 35% |
| 26.5 | 40% | 60% | 30% |
Sample: 5,390 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 24.5out · 36 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Alexander Bublik | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Aces | 8 |
| 3 | Double faults | 5 |
| 73% | First serves in | 72% |
| 85% | First-serve points won | 86% |
| 59% | Second-serve points won | 45% |
| 0/5 | Break points converted | 1/5 |
| 16/17 | Service games held | 17/17 |
| 78% | Service points won | 75% |
| 25% | Return points won | 22% |
| 105 | Total points won | 105 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Bublik | Tour | K. Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 68% | 62% | 67% |
| Return points won | 34% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 87% | 76% | 86% |
| Breaks of serve | 16% | 24% | 21% |
| Aces per service game | 0.88 | 0.56 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.27 | 0.15 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 25% | 21% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 21/37 | 11/30 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 48% | |
| Matches in the sample | 56 | 51 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Alexander Bublik
- 13/10/26LAlexander Zverev#2ATP Shanghai · R166:7 6:4 6:7
- 11/10/26WBrandon Nakashima#17ATP Shanghai · R326:7 6:3 7:6
- 09/10/26WTomáš Macháč#71ATP Shanghai · R646:4 7:6
- 01/10/26LJakub Menšík#16ATP Beijing · R324:6 6:7
- 04/09/26LTommy Paul#14ATP US Open · R324:6 6:3 7:6 1:6 3:6
- 02/09/26WAdrian Mannarino#73ATP US Open · R646:3 6:1 6:1
- 31/08/26WJeffrey John Wolf#210ATP US Open · R1286:4 6:2 3:6 6:1
- 25/07/26LQuentin Halys#45ATP Kitzbuhel · F4:6 6:7
- 24/07/26WTomás Martín Etcheverry#29ATP Kitzbuhel · SF6:3 6:4
- 23/07/26WAlex Molcan#80ATP Kitzbuhel · QF6:3 6:2
Karen Khachanov
- 22/10/26WTomáš Macháč#71ATP Almaty · R166:2 4:6 7:6
- 20/10/26WRei Sakamoto#125ATP Almaty · R326:2 6:4
- 13/10/26LAlex de Minaur#10ATP Shanghai · R163:6 4:6
- 11/10/26WAdrian Mannarino#73ATP Shanghai · R326:2 6:4
- 09/10/26WArthur Fery#35ATP Shanghai · R647:6 6:7 7:6
- 04/10/26LHubert Hurkacz#28ATP Beijing · QF6:7 2:6
- 02/10/26WAlex Molcan#80ATP Beijing · R167:5 6:3
- 30/09/26WFelix Auger-Aliassime#7ATP Beijing · R326:3 6:3
- 11/09/26LAlexander Zverev#2ATP US Open · SF3:6 6:7 6:7
- 09/09/26WAlexander Blockx#27ATP US Open · QF6:2 7:5 3:2
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Bublik | K. Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 21–1166% | 20–1459% |
| Clay | 8–850% | 7–654% |
| Grass | 5–363% | 2–250% |
Head to head
A. Bublik 1–1 K. Khachanov
- 21/06/25Winner: A. Bublik4:6 7:6 6:4
- 23/08/20Winner: K. Khachanov4:6 4:6
Road through the tournament
Alexander Bublik
First match in this tournament.
Karen Khachanov
- 20/10/26WRei Sakamoto#125ATP Almaty · R326:2 6:4
- 22/10/26WTomáš Macháč#71ATP Almaty · R166:2 4:6 7:6