ATP Almaty250Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Macháč vs Khachanov: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 5h 29mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Tomáš Macháč29%
Karen Khachanov71%
Elo: T. Macháč 46% · K. Khachanov 54%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 T. Macháč17%
2:1 T. Macháč13%
2:1 K. Khachanov23%
2:0 K. Khachanov48%
First set
Tomáš Macháč34%
Karen Khachanov66%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.2
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 74% | 26% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 66% | 34% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 58% | 42% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 52% | 48% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 44% | 56% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 39% | 61% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 37% | 63% | 35% |
Sample: 4,578 matches
Games handicap
Karen Khachanov −3.550%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes47%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| T. Macháč | Tour | K. Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 67% |
| Return points won | 36% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 77% | 76% | 85% |
| Breaks of serve | 21% | 24% | 22% |
| Aces per service game | 0.43 | 0.55 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.20 | 0.15 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 16% | 20% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/16 | 10/29 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 50% | |
| Matches in the sample | 38 | 50 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Tomáš Macháč
- 21/10/26WZangar NurlanulyATP Almaty · R326:2 6:0
- 16/10/26LLiam Draxl#197Challenger Jinan · QF4:6 6:3 4:6
- 15/10/26WAleksandar Vukic#116Challenger Jinan · R166:2 6:1
- 13/10/26WAlexandre Muller#131Challenger Jinan · R326:3 6:4
- 09/10/26LAlexander Bublik#19ATP Shanghai · R644:6 6:7
- 07/10/26WZhizhen Zhang#170ATP Shanghai · R1281:6 7:6 6:2
- 01/10/26LAlex Molcan#80ATP Beijing · R323:6 2:6
- 29/09/26LArthur Gea#44ATP Beijing · Q23:6 4:6
- 28/09/26WYannick Hanfmann#59ATP Beijing · Q17:6 6:7 6:4
- 30/08/26LToby Samuel#96ATP US Open · R1282:6 3:6 2:6
Karen Khachanov
- 20/10/26WRei Sakamoto#124ATP Almaty · R326:2 6:4
- 13/10/26LAlex de Minaur#8ATP Shanghai · R163:6 4:6
- 11/10/26WAdrian Mannarino#79ATP Shanghai · R326:2 6:4
- 09/10/26WArthur Fery#34ATP Shanghai · R647:6 6:7 7:6
- 04/10/26LHubert Hurkacz#30ATP Beijing · QF6:7 2:6
- 02/10/26WAlex Molcan#80ATP Beijing · R167:5 6:3
- 30/09/26WFelix Auger-Aliassime#7ATP Beijing · R326:3 6:3
- 11/09/26LAlexander Zverev#2ATP US Open · SF3:6 6:7 6:7
- 09/09/26WAlexander Blockx#27ATP US Open · QF6:2 7:5 3:2
- 07/09/26WLearner Tien#18ATP US Open · R167:5 4:6 6:7 6:1 6:4
Elo over the last year
Tomáš MacháčKaren Khachanov
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| T. Macháč | K. Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 13–1448% | 19–1458% |
| Clay | 6–555% | 7–654% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 2–250% |
Head to head
T. Macháč 0–1 K. Khachanov
- 19/01/24Winner: Karen Khachanov4:6 6:7 6:4 6:7
Road through the tournament
Tomáš Macháč
- 21/10/26WZangar NurlanulyATP Almaty · R326:2 6:0
Karen Khachanov
- 20/10/26WRei Sakamoto#124ATP Almaty · R326:2 6:4