Carreno Busta vs Auger-Aliassime 1:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 76%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Auger-Aliassime won 7 of the last 10 matches
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: P. Carreno Busta 27% · F. Auger-Aliassime 73%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 71% | 29% | 67% |
| 20.5 | 63% | 37% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 55% | 45% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 49% | 51% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 42% | 58% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 37% | 63% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 35% | 65% | 34% |
Sample: 3,511 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Over 22.0in · 26 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Felix Auger-Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aces | 7 |
| 2 | Double faults | 2 |
| 72% | First serves in | 69% |
| 63% | First-serve points won | 80% |
| 46% | Second-serve points won | 59% |
| 1/3 | Break points converted | 4/9 |
| 9/13 | Service games held | 12/13 |
| 58% | Service points won | 73% |
| 27% | Return points won | 42% |
| 65 | Total points won | 85 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| P. Carreno Busta | Tour | F. Auger-Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 69% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 36% |
| Service games held | 77% | 76% | 88% |
| Breaks of serve | 26% | 24% | 19% |
| Aces per service game | 0.26 | 0.83 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.15 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 26% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 11/18 | 29/45 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 47% | 61% | |
| Matches in the sample | 57 | 66 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Pablo Carreno Busta
- 10/10/26WAlejandro Tabilo#30ATP Shanghai · R644:6 7:6 6:4
- 08/10/26WMariano Navone#47ATP Shanghai · R1284:6 7:5 6:3
- 02/10/26LDaniil Medvedev#6ATP Beijing · R324:6 2:6
- 29/09/26WAdrian Mannarino#83ATP Beijing · Q26:3 6:4
- 28/09/26WYi Zhou#277ATP Beijing · Q17:5 6:3
- 30/08/26LJiří Lehečka#16ATP US Open · R1281:6 6:7 6:4 2:6
- 23/08/26LAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#52ATP Winston Salem · R644:6 0:3
- 16/08/26LAndrey Rublev#23ATP Cincinnati · R646:7 1:6
- 14/08/26WTomáš Macháč#75ATP Cincinnati · R1286:3 6:2
- 04/08/26LValentin Royer#105ATP Montreal · R1286:1 5:7 2:6
Felix Auger-Aliassime
- 10/10/26WCamilo Ugo Carabelli#77ATP Shanghai · R644:6 7:6 7:5
- 30/09/26LKaren Khachanov#27ATP Beijing · R323:6 3:6
- 03/09/26LKaren Khachanov#27ATP US Open · R647:6 3:6 2:6 2:6
- 31/08/26WRinky Hijikata#85ATP US Open · R1287:5 4:6 6:3 7:5
- 20/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#10ATP Cincinnati · R163:6 4:6
- 18/08/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#55ATP Cincinnati · R327:5 6:1
- 16/08/26WStefanos Tsitsipas#43ATP Cincinnati · R646:3 7:5
- 07/07/26LNovak Djokovic#8ATP Wimbledon · QF6:7 6:3 3:6 7:6 6:7
- 05/07/26WAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#26ATP Wimbledon · R166:7 7:6 6:3 6:7 6:1
- 03/07/26WMichael Zheng#94ATP Wimbledon · R327:6 6:2 6:1
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| P. Carreno Busta | F. Auger-Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 17–1357% | 31–1272% |
| Clay | 18–772% | 8–562% |
| Grass | 1–150% | 7–370% |
Head to head
P. Carreno Busta 0–1 F. Auger-Aliassime
- 15/02/20Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime6:7 4:6
Road through the tournament
Pablo Carreno Busta
- 08/10/26WMariano Navone#47ATP Shanghai · R1284:6 7:5 6:3
- 10/10/26WAlejandro Tabilo#30ATP Shanghai · R644:6 7:6 6:4
Felix Auger-Aliassime
- 10/10/26WCamilo Ugo Carabelli#77ATP Shanghai · R644:6 7:6 7:5