ATP Brussels250Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Damm Jr vs Cerúndolo 0:2: result and our tips

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Martin Damm JrATP #107Elo 1863hard 1822
0:2final4:6 6:7(4)
Francisco CerúndoloATP #21Elo 2052hard 2013

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won68%

Where the number comes from: market alone 63% → with the players' profiles 68%

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Damm Jr 15 of 20, Cerundolo 13 of 20 (tour average 60%)

Long shot
1st Set Winner: Damm JrLost41%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Damm Jr won the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches, Cerundolo lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Martin Damm Jr37%
Francisco Cerúndolo63%

Elo: M. Damm Jr 25% · F. Cerúndolo 75%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Damm Jr22%
2:1 M. Damm Jr17%
2:1 F. Cerúndolo22%
2:0 F. Cerúndolo40%

First set

Martin Damm Jr41%
Francisco Cerúndolo59%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.568%32%60%
21.561%39%54%
22.555%45%46%
23.547%53%40%
24.542%58%38%
25.540%61%35%
26.536%64%30%

Sample: 5,692 matches

Games handicap

Francisco Cerúndolo −2.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes48%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 23.0out · 23 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Martin Damm JrFrancisco Cerúndolo
9Aces12
4Double faults4
59%First serves in64%
76%First-serve points won80%
46%Second-serve points won56%
1/7Break points converted2/2
9/11Service games held10/11
64%Service points won71%
29%Return points won36%
64Total points won75

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. Damm JrTourF. Cerúndolo
Service points won68%62%63%
Return points won33%38%40%
Service games held86%76%78%
Breaks of serve17%24%29%
Aces per service game1.000.34
Double faults per game0.310.24
Sets with a tie-break27%11%
Tie-breaks won24/448/17
Wins in straight sets80%65%
Matches in the sample6958

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Martin Damm Jr

Francisco Cerúndolo

Elo over the last year

Martin Damm JrFrancisco Cerúndolo

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. Damm JrF. Cerúndolo
Hard court25–1957%17–1259%
Clay7–654%15–865%
Grass7–558%5–183%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Martin Damm Jr

Francisco Cerúndolo

First match in this tournament.