Demin vs Overbeck 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Overbeck: 12 matches in a row under 25.5 games; Under 25.5 games in recent matches: Demin 11 of 13, Overbeck 15 of 20 (tour average 68%)
Other tips
- Total Sets: Under 2.5Won62%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Overbeck: 7 matches in a row without a deciding set
Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 39%
Overbeck: 5 matches in a row under 20.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: Y. Demin 42% · C. Overbeck 58%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.7
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 70% | 31% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 61% | 39% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 56% | 44% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 49% | 52% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 43% | 57% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 41% | 59% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 37% | 63% | 32% |
Sample: 5,401 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 2:0
- Total games Over 22.0out · 20 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Yaroslav Demin | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aces | 3 |
| 2 | Double faults | 0 |
| 75% | First serves in | 72% |
| 73% | First-serve points won | 68% |
| 73% | Second-serve points won | 60% |
| 2/4 | Break points converted | 0/2 |
| 10/10 | Service games held | 8/10 |
| 73% | Service points won | 66% |
| 34% | Return points won | 27% |
| 61 | Total points won | 51 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| Y. Demin | Tour | C. Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 65% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 75% | 76% | 80% |
| Breaks of serve | 23% | 24% | 25% |
| Aces per service game | 0.39 | 0.61 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.38 | 0.26 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 18% | 18% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 4/5 | 6/13 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 55% | |
| Matches in the sample | 13 | 31 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Yaroslav Demin
- 26/10/26WQian Sun#890Challenger Ningbo · Q16:0 6:4
- 26/10/26WMartin Borisiouk#724Challenger Ningbo · Q17:6 6:3
- 20/10/26LAkira Santillan#294Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R326:4 4:6 3:6
- 19/10/26WKasidit Samrej#368Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q26:4 6:2
- 18/10/26WAlexander Binda#466Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q16:3 7:6
- 07/10/26LAkira Santillan#294Challenger Wuning 3 · R163:6 3:6
- 05/10/26WBeibit Zhukayev#528Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:4 6:4
- 13/09/26LHanyi Liu#827Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · Q13:6 3:6
- 02/08/26LSidharth Rawat#656Challenger Istanbul 2 · Q14:6 2:6
- 19/07/26LConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine#494Challenger Segovia · Q15:7 3:6
Carl Emil Overbeck
- 29/09/26LHugo Grenier#403Challenger Porto 2 · R324:6 2:6
- 07/09/26LAlafia Ayeni#437Challenger Istanbul 3 · R322:6 5:7
- 01/09/26LLuca Potenza#564Challenger Manacor · Q23:6 3:6
- 31/08/26WRyan Peniston#884Challenger Manacor · Q16:2 6:3
- 17/05/26LEnrico Dalla Valle#304Challenger Cervia · Q11:6 1:6
- 05/04/26LJoshua Charlton#832Challenger Wuning · Q13:6 6:7
- 31/03/26LOgnjen Milic#362Challenger Miyazaki · R324:6 6:7
- 30/03/26WTai Leonard Sach#512Challenger Miyazaki · Q26:1 4:6 6:2
- 29/03/26WKokoro Isomura#652Challenger Miyazaki · Q16:3 1:0
- 24/03/26LLi Tu#509Challenger Yokkaichi · R325:7 6:7
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| Y. Demin | C. Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 5–550% | 20–1165% |
| Clay | 2–167% | 0–10% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Yaroslav Demin
- 26/10/26WMartin Borisiouk#724Challenger Ningbo · Q17:6 6:3
- 26/10/26WQian Sun#890Challenger Ningbo · Q16:0 6:4
Carl Emil Overbeck
First match in this tournament.