Challenger OlbiaChallenger 175Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Dougaz vs Dzumhur 1:2: result and our tips

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Aziz DougazATP #430Elo 1686hard 1685
1:2final3:6 6:2 3:6
Damir DzumhurATP #103Elo 1790hard 1739

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoWon64%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

No tie-break in recent matches: Dougaz 15 of 20, Dzumhur 16 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won36%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Dougaz 10 of 20, Dzumhur 8 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Aziz Dougaz45%
Damir Dzumhur55%

Elo: A. Dougaz 42% · D. Dzumhur 58%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Dougaz27%
2:1 A. Dougaz17%
2:1 D. Dzumhur21%
2:0 D. Dzumhur36%

First set

Aziz Dougaz46%
Damir Dzumhur55%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 48%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%62%
20.561%39%54%
21.555%45%49%
22.548%52%42%
23.542%58%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,554 matches

Games handicap

Damir Dzumhur −1.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes36%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.0in · 26 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Aziz DougazDamir Dzumhur
2Aces0
3Double faults3
66%First serves in71%
62%First-serve points won67%
48%Second-serve points won48%
3/7Break points converted4/9
9/13Service games held10/13
57%Service points won62%
39%Return points won43%
76Total points won82

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. DougazTourD. Dzumhur
Service points won65%62%59%
Return points won36%38%40%
Service games held83%76%70%
Breaks of serve21%24%27%
Aces per service game0.580.13
Double faults per game0.300.17
Sets with a tie-break13%18%
Tie-breaks won1/812/25
Wins in straight sets50%56%
Matches in the sample2458

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Aziz Dougaz

  • 06/10/26LFederico Cina#147ATP Shanghai · Q23:6 6:4 4:6
  • 05/10/26WLorenzo Sonego#87ATP Shanghai · Q17:6 5:7 6:4
  • 27/08/26LAndrea Guerrieri#165ATP US Open · Q32:6 4:6
  • 26/08/26WKyrian Jacquet#76ATP US Open · Q26:4 4:6 6:4
  • 24/08/26WFederico Agustin Gomez#204ATP US Open · Q16:4 6:2
  • 16/08/26LHayato Matsuoka#247Challenger Astana · F6:0 1:6 6:7
  • 15/08/26WSergey Fomin#294Challenger Astana · SF4:6 6:1 7:5
  • 14/08/26WJie Cui#420Challenger Astana · QF6:2 4:6 7:5
  • 13/08/26WManas Dhamne#402Challenger Astana · R167:5 6:3
  • 11/08/26WAlec Deckers#552Challenger Astana · R326:3 2:6 6:3

Damir Dzumhur

Elo over the last year

Aziz DougazDamir Dzumhur

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. DougazD. Dzumhur
Hard court11–761%10–1540%
Clay0–30%13–1645%
Grass1–233%2–250%

Head to head

They have not met yet.