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Challenger Sioux FallsChallenger 125Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Draxl vs Berkieta 2:0: result and our tips

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Liam DraxlATP #194Elo 1815hard 1798
2:0final7:6(8) 7:6(1)
Tomasz BerkietaATP #647Elo 1590hard 1606

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Set Betting: Draxl 2-0Won61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Draxl won 2-0 in 8 of the last 20 matches, Berkieta lost 0-2 in 9 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 19.5Won56%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 58% → with the players' profiles 56%

    Berkieta: 6 matches in a row over 19.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Won41%

Where the number comes from: market alone 43% → with the players' profiles 41%

Draxl: 3 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Liam Draxl81%
Tomasz Berkieta19%

Elo: L. Draxl 75% · T. Berkieta 25%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Draxl60%
2:1 L. Draxl21%
2:1 T. Berkieta9%
2:0 T. Berkieta10%

First set

Liam Draxl75%
Tomasz Berkieta25%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes30%
no70%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 53%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.574%26%79%
18.565%35%71%
19.556%44%62%
20.547%53%54%
21.541%59%49%
22.535%65%42%
23.531%69%37%

Sample: 2,746 matches

Games handicap

L. Draxl −4.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.0out · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Liam DraxlTomasz Berkieta
6Aces8
3Double faults10
62%First serves in56%
76%First-serve points won68%
44%Second-serve points won43%
3/9Break points converted3/5
9/12Service games held9/12
64%Service points won57%
43%Return points won36%
100Total points won89

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. DraxlTourT. Berkieta
Service points won62%62%62%
Return points won40%38%40%
Service games held74%76%78%
Breaks of serve28%24%26%
Aces per service game0.410.49
Double faults per game0.240.42
Sets with a tie-break17%11%
Tie-breaks won12/261/5
Wins in straight sets47%80%
Matches in the sample6221

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Liam Draxl

Tomasz Berkieta

  • 26/10/26WSpencer Johnson#436Challenger Sioux Falls · Q23:6 7:5 6:2
  • 25/10/26WErik Arutiunian#573Challenger Sioux Falls · Q16:2 7:5
  • 05/08/26LMichele Ribecai#265Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · R165:7 4:6
  • 03/08/26WFacundo Mena#193Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · R326:3 7:6
  • 27/07/26LNorbert Gombos#370Challenger Liberec · Q26:7 1:6
  • 26/07/26WDominik KellovskyChallenger Liberec · Q16:4 6:4
  • 24/06/26LTommaso Compagnucci#371Challenger Plovdiv · R163:6 3:6
  • 23/06/26WGeoffrey Blancaneaux#448Challenger Plovdiv · R326:2 6:1
  • 22/06/26WAleksandar TolevChallenger Plovdiv · Q26:1 6:2
  • 21/06/26WEdison AmbarzumjanChallenger Plovdiv · Q16:4 6:1

Elo over the last year

Liam DraxlTomasz Berkieta

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. DraxlT. Berkieta
Hard court29–1960%4–357%
Clay7–654%6–843%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Liam Draxl

First match in this tournament.

Tomasz Berkieta