Challenger RoanneChallenger 125Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Gaston vs Budkov Kjaer 0:2: result and our tips

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Hugo GastonATP #89Elo 1844hard 1827
0:2final1:6 6:7(7)
Nicolai Budkov KjaerATP #152Elo 1767hard 1768

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoLost67%

Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 67%

No tie-break in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 18.5Won74%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 76% → with the players' profiles 74%

    Over 18.5 games in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Lost35%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 25.5 games in 2 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Hugo Gaston54%
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer46%

Elo: H. Gaston 59% · N. Budkov Kjaer 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 H. Gaston35%
2:1 H. Gaston20%
2:1 N. Budkov Kjaer18%
2:0 N. Budkov Kjaer27%

First set

Hugo Gaston54%
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer46%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 49%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%71%
19.566%34%62%
20.559%41%54%
21.553%47%49%
22.546%54%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.539%61%35%

Sample: 5,440 matches

Games handicap

Hugo Gaston −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes33%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 20 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Hugo GastonNicolai Budkov Kjaer
5Aces5
0Double faults1
59%First serves in70%
70%First-serve points won77%
43%Second-serve points won47%
2/4Break points converted4/5
5/9Service games held8/10
59%Service points won68%
32%Return points won41%
50Total points won64

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

H. GastonTourN. Budkov Kjaer
Service points won61%62%62%
Return points won40%38%38%
Service games held74%76%76%
Breaks of serve28%24%24%
Aces per service game0.250.39
Double faults per game0.190.22
Sets with a tie-break11%15%
Tie-breaks won11/1810/23
Wins in straight sets56%50%
Matches in the sample6764

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Hugo Gaston

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Elo over the last year

Hugo GastonNicolai Budkov Kjaer

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

H. GastonN. Budkov Kjaer
Hard court24–1463%21–1953%
Clay12–1250%9–950%
Grass3–260%2–433%

Head to head

H. Gaston 1–2 N. Budkov Kjaer

  • 12/08/26Winner: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2:6 6:3 4:6
  • 10/10/25Winner: Hugo Gaston6:4 3:6 6:1
  • 23/09/25Winner: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer3:6 4:6

Road through the tournament

Hugo Gaston

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

See also