Challenger MaiaChallenger 125Qualifying round 2claybest of three setsqualifying

Hassan vs Nijboer 2:1: result and our tips

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Benjamin HassanATP #500Elo 1591clay 1608
2:1final5:7 7:6(5) 7:5
Ryan NijboerATP #417Elo 1620clay 1622

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 24.5Lost62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Hassan: 8 matches in a row under 24.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Benjamin Hassan49%
Ryan Nijboer51%

Elo: B. Hassan 48% · R. Nijboer 52%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Hassan29%
2:1 B. Hassan19%
2:1 R. Nijboer20%
2:0 R. Nijboer32%

First set

Benjamin Hassan49%
Ryan Nijboer51%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 56%market (no margin): 53%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.573%27%68%
19.564%36%59%
20.556%44%52%
21.550%50%47%
22.544%56%40%
23.540%60%36%
24.538%62%34%

Sample: 4,299 matches

Games handicap

Ryan Nijboer −0.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes28%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 37 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Benjamin HassanRyan Nijboer
5Aces8
1Double faults3
56%First serves in66%
72%First-serve points won74%
58%Second-serve points won53%
2/5Break points converted2/5
16/18Service games held16/18
66%Service points won67%
33%Return points won34%
111Total points won109

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. HassanTourR. Nijboer
Service points won61%62%62%
Return points won37%38%41%
Service games held74%76%77%
Breaks of serve22%24%31%
Aces per service game0.420.36
Double faults per game0.280.25
Sets with a tie-break12%8%
Tie-breaks won9/132/5
Wins in straight sets50%61%
Matches in the sample4829

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Benjamin Hassan

  • 11/10/26WCarlos Taberner#361Challenger Maia · Q17:6 6:3
  • 05/10/26LRyan Nijboer#417Challenger Braga · Q23:6 3:6
  • 04/10/26WRafael Izquierdo Luque#767Challenger Braga · Q16:3 6:1
  • 28/09/26LZsombor Piros#114Challenger Bari · R326:7 3:6
  • 21/09/26LPol Martin Tiffon#215Challenger Plovdiv 4 · R326:1 4:6 1:6
  • 07/09/26LSamir Hamza Reguig#702Challenger Istanbul 3 · Q26:7 2:6
  • 06/09/26WMarsel IlhanChallenger Istanbul 3 · Q16:2 6:2
  • 31/08/26LFrancesco Forti#336Challenger Como · Q25:7 7:6 0:0
  • 30/08/26WNicolas Parizzia#998Challenger Como · Q16:4 6:3
  • 25/08/26LJuan Manuel La Serna#285Challenger Augsburg · R322:6 6:3 5:7

Ryan Nijboer

Elo over the last year

Benjamin HassanRyan Nijboer

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. HassanR. Nijboer
Hard court4–1127%0–10%
Clay18–1555%18–1064%

Head to head

B. Hassan 0–1 R. Nijboer

  • 05/10/26Winner: Ryan Nijboer3:6 3:6

Road through the tournament

Benjamin Hassan

Ryan Nijboer