WTA 125 QuerétaroRound of 16claybest of three sets
Hercog vs Strakhova: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 1hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Polona Hercog82%
Valeriya Strakhova18%
Elo: P. Hercog 78% · V. Strakhova 22%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 P. Hercog63%
2:1 P. Hercog20%
2:1 V. Strakhova9%
2:0 V. Strakhova9%
First set
Polona Hercog75%
Valeriya Strakhova25%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes29%
no71%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 19.5 · 54%market (no margin): 52%
The 19.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 20.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5 | 84% | 16% | 86% |
| 16.5 | 74% | 26% | 77% |
| 17.5 | 65% | 35% | 68% |
| 18.5 | 53% | 47% | 59% |
| 19.5 | 46% | 54% | 52% |
| 20.5 | 39% | 61% | 45% |
| 21.5 | 36% | 64% | 41% |
Sample: 901 matches
Games handicap
P. Hercog −5.554%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes18%
tour average 20%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| P. Hercog | Tour | V. Strakhova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 59% | 56% | 52% |
| Return points won | 46% | 44% | 43% |
| Service games held | 68% | 63% | 56% |
| Breaks of serve | 40% | 37% | 35% |
| Aces per service game | 0.22 | 0.13 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.26 | 0.29 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 15% | 0% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 6/12 | 0/0 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 75% | |
| Matches in the sample | 34 | 14 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Polona Hercog
- 27/10/26WMartina Capurro Taborda#277WTA 125 Querétaro · R327:6 7:5
- 16/10/26LJessica Bouzas Maneiro#96WTA 125 Lisbon · QF6:4 1:6 4:6
- 14/10/26WJazmin Ortenzi#173WTA 125 Lisbon · R166:3 3:6 6:3
- 13/10/26WMadalena MatiasWTA 125 Lisbon · R326:0 6:0
- 21/09/26LLeyre Romero Gormaz#131WTA 125 Tolentino · R327:6 1:6 6:7
- 14/09/26LJulie Struplova#259WTA 125 Ljubljana · R326:7 2:6
- 25/08/26LMoyuka Uchijima#121WTA US Open · Q13:6 3:6
- 16/07/26LJeline Vandromme#124WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · R164:6 0:3
- 13/07/26WDalila Jakupovic#382WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · R326:2 2:6 6:4
- 23/06/26LBianca Andreescu#129WTA Wimbledon · Q14:6 2:6
Valeriya Strakhova
- 27/10/26WSofia Costoulas#177WTA 125 Querétaro · R326:4 6:3
- 26/10/26WAmelie van Impe#641WTA 125 Querétaro · Q26:1 5:7 6:4
- 26/10/26WGabriela VilarWTA 125 Querétaro · Q16:0 6:0
- 19/07/26LChloe Paquet#312WTA Hamburg · Q13:6 6:4 2:6
- 06/07/26LMiriam Bianca Bulgaru#377WTA 125 Bastad · R322:6 2:6
- 21/02/26LMiriana Tona#386WTA Merida · Q12:6 4:6
- 15/02/26LDalayna Hewitt#542WTA 125 Midland · Q14:6 4:6
- 02/12/25LMell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez#355WTA 125 Quito · R326:3 5:7 5:7
- 01/12/25WTania Varela-AlvaradoWTA 125 Quito · Q16:0 6:2
- 23/11/25LKatarina Jokic#702WTA 125 Buenos Aires · Q14:6
Elo over the last year
Polona HercogValeriya Strakhova
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| P. Hercog | V. Strakhova | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 0–10% | 0–20% |
| Clay | 20–1263% | 4–833% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 0–0 |
Head to head
P. Hercog 2–0 V. Strakhova
- 16/11/25Winner: P. Hercog6:1 6:0
- 29/11/23Winner: P. Hercog6:1 1:6 6:3
Road through the tournament
Polona Hercog
- 27/10/26WMartina Capurro Taborda#277WTA 125 Querétaro · R327:6 7:5
Valeriya Strakhova
- 26/10/26WGabriela VilarWTA 125 Querétaro · Q16:0 6:0
- 26/10/26WAmelie van Impe#641WTA 125 Querétaro · Q26:1 5:7 6:4
- 27/10/26WSofia Costoulas#177WTA 125 Querétaro · R326:4 6:3