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ATP Basel500Qualifying round 2hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Hijikata vs Hanfmann 1:2: result and our tips

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Rinky HijikataATP #85Elo 1898hard 1864
1:2final4:6 6:1 3:6
Yannick HanfmannATP #59Elo 1941hard 1892

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Hijikata: 8 matches in a row without a deciding set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 25.5Lost59%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 61% → with the players' profiles 59%

    Hijikata: 8 matches in a row under 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Rinky Hijikata42%
Yannick Hanfmann59%

Elo: R. Hijikata 46% · Y. Hanfmann 54%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 R. Hijikata24%
2:1 R. Hijikata19%
2:1 Y. Hanfmann21%
2:0 Y. Hanfmann36%

First set

Rinky Hijikata44%
Yannick Hanfmann56%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 56%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.569%31%60%
21.562%38%54%
22.556%44%46%
23.548%52%40%
24.544%56%38%
25.541%59%35%
26.537%63%30%

Sample: 5,912 matches

Games handicap

Y. Hanfmann −1.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes47%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Rinky HijikataYannick Hanfmann
2Aces9
2Double faults0
65%First serves in70%
80%First-serve points won67%
46%Second-serve points won56%
2/11Break points converted2/4
11/13Service games held11/13
68%Service points won64%
36%Return points won32%
81Total points won77

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

R. HijikataTourY. Hanfmann
Service points won62%62%67%
Return points won37%38%36%
Service games held78%76%84%
Breaks of serve23%24%19%
Aces per service game0.390.71
Double faults per game0.220.18
Sets with a tie-break21%28%
Tie-breaks won23/3823/40
Wins in straight sets56%65%
Matches in the sample7560

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Rinky Hijikata

Yannick Hanfmann

Elo over the last year

Rinky HijikataYannick Hanfmann

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

R. HijikataY. Hanfmann
Hard court30–2159%16–1355%
Clay6–746%14–961%
Grass7–464%4–450%

Head to head

R. Hijikata 1–0 Y. Hanfmann

  • 16/01/23Winner: R. Hijikata4:6 4:6 6:3 7:6 6:3

Road through the tournament

Rinky Hijikata

Yannick Hanfmann