ATP Basel500Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Hurkacz vs Rune: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1h 26mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Hubert Hurkacz65%
Holger Rune36%
Elo: H. Hurkacz 54% · H. Rune 46%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 H. Hurkacz41%
2:1 H. Hurkacz22%
2:1 H. Rune16%
2:0 H. Rune21%
First set
Hubert Hurkacz60%
Holger Rune40%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.5 · 59%market (no margin): 51%
The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 71% | 30% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 62% | 38% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 48% | 52% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 42% | 59% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 37% | 63% | 35% |
Sample: 5,634 matches
Games handicap
H. Hurkacz −2.552%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes40%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| H. Hurkacz | Tour | H. Rune | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 68% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 35% | 38% | 34% |
| Service games held | 87% | 76% | 81% |
| Breaks of serve | 18% | 24% | 17% |
| Aces per service game | 0.96 | 0.46 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.20 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 27% | 38% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 20/39 | 1/3 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 0% | |
| Matches in the sample | 52 | 3 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Hubert Hurkacz
- 27/10/26WZizou Bergs#39ATP Basel · R323:6 6:3 6:4
- 13/10/26LAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#15ATP Shanghai · R166:1 3:6 6:7
- 11/10/26WYi Zhou#256ATP Shanghai · R326:2 3:6 6:3
- 09/10/26WNovak Djokovic#12ATP Shanghai · R646:4 6:3
- 08/10/26WJames Duckworth#68ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 7:6
- 05/10/26LAlex de Minaur#10ATP Beijing · SF4:6 2:3
- 04/10/26WKaren Khachanov#24ATP Beijing · QF7:6 6:2
- 02/10/26WArthur Gea#44ATP Beijing · R167:6 6:7 6:2
- 01/10/26WLearner Tien#18ATP Beijing · R325:7 6:3 6:4
- 29/09/26LAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#15ATP Chengdu · F4:6 6:7
Holger Rune
- 26/10/26WQuentin Halys#45ATP Basel · R326:4 6:7 7:6
- 07/10/26LDaniel Altmaier#60ATP Shanghai · R1286:1 6:7 4:6
- 01/10/26LKyrian Jacquet#79ATP Tokyo · R323:6 1:6
- 18/10/25LUgo Humbert#38ATP Stockholm · SF6:4 2:2
- 17/10/25WTomás Martín Etcheverry#29ATP Stockholm · QF6:7 6:3 6:4
- 16/10/25WMarton Fucsovics#143ATP Stockholm · R166:4 6:4
- 09/10/25LValentin Vacherot#31ATP Shanghai · QF6:2 6:7 4:6
- 07/10/25WGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard#148ATP Shanghai · R166:4 6:7 6:3
- 05/10/25WUgo Humbert#38ATP Shanghai · R326:4 6:4
- 03/10/25WSebastián Báez#49ATP Shanghai · R647:5 6:4
Elo over the last year
Hubert HurkaczHolger Rune
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| H. Hurkacz | H. Rune | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 20–1361% | 1–233% |
| Clay | 8–562% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 4–357% | 0–0 |
Head to head
H. Hurkacz 0–1 H. Rune
- 02/11/22Winner: H. Rune5:7 1:6
Road through the tournament
Hubert Hurkacz
- 27/10/26WZizou Bergs#39ATP Basel · R323:6 6:3 6:4
Holger Rune
- 26/10/26WQuentin Halys#45ATP Basel · R326:4 6:7 7:6