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ATP Basel500Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Hurkacz vs Bergs 2:1: result and our tips

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Hubert HurkaczATP #28Elo 2098hard 2054
2:1final3:6 6:3 6:4
Zizou BergsATP #39Elo 1967hard 1918

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: HurkaczLost58%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Hurkacz: 6 matches in a row winning the first set

Other tips

  • Match Winner: HurkaczWon62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 62%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Hurkacz won 8 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Games: Over 21.5Won62%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 58% → with the players' profiles 62%

    Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Hurkacz 15 of 20, Bergs 11 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesLost49%

Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 49%

A tie-break in recent matches: Hurkacz 10 of 20, Bergs 10 of 20 (tour average 39%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Hubert Hurkacz63%
Zizou Bergs37%

Elo: H. Hurkacz 69% · Z. Bergs 31%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 H. Hurkacz39%
2:1 H. Hurkacz22%
2:1 Z. Bergs17%
2:0 Z. Bergs22%

First set

Hubert Hurkacz59%
Zizou Bergs41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 25.5 · 60%market (no margin): 50%

The 25.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.569%31%60%
21.562%38%54%
22.556%44%46%
23.547%53%40%
24.542%58%38%
25.540%60%35%
26.536%64%30%

Sample: 5,801 matches

Games handicap

H. Hurkacz −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes49%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 25.5out · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Hubert HurkaczZizou Bergs
13Aces14
3Double faults1
61%First serves in74%
85%First-serve points won75%
57%Second-serve points won39%
2/6Break points converted1/7
13/14Service games held12/14
74%Service points won66%
34%Return points won26%
88Total points won79

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

H. HurkaczTourZ. Bergs
Service points won68%62%64%
Return points won35%38%38%
Service games held87%76%81%
Breaks of serve18%24%23%
Aces per service game0.960.58
Double faults per game0.200.35
Sets with a tie-break28%18%
Tie-breaks won20/398/24
Wins in straight sets52%56%
Matches in the sample5152

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Hubert Hurkacz

Zizou Bergs

Elo over the last year

Hubert HurkaczZizou Bergs

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

H. HurkaczZ. Bergs
Hard court19–1359%13–1546%
Clay8–562%7–750%
Grass4–357%7–370%

Head to head

H. Hurkacz 1–0 Z. Bergs

  • 20/01/26Winner: H. Hurkacz6:7 7:6 6:3 6:3

See also