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ATP Brussels250Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Struff vs Bergs 2:0: result and our tips

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Jan-Lennard StruffATP #47Elo 1912hard 1855
2:0final6:3 7:6(6)
Zizou BergsATP #39Elo 1983hard 1936

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Won63%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Bergs: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 25.5Won63%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 63%

    Bergs: 6 matches in a row under 25.5 games

  • Match Winner: BergsLost67%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Bergs won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
1st Set Winner: StruffWon38%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Struff: 4 matches in a row winning the first set

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jan-Lennard Struff33%
Zizou Bergs67%

Elo: J.-L. Struff 39% · Z. Bergs 61%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J.-L. Struff20%
2:1 J.-L. Struff14%
2:1 Z. Bergs23%
2:0 Z. Bergs43%

First set

Jan-Lennard Struff38%
Zizou Bergs62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 50%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.574%26%68%
20.566%34%60%
21.559%41%54%
22.553%47%46%
23.545%55%40%
24.540%60%38%
25.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,225 matches

Games handicap

Z. Bergs −3.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes47%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 23.0in · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Jan-Lennard StruffZizou Bergs
5Aces13
2Double faults3
52%First serves in61%
81%First-serve points won74%
54%Second-serve points won56%
1/2Break points converted0/5
11/11Service games held9/10
68%Service points won67%
33%Return points won32%
77Total points won69

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J.-L. StruffTourZ. Bergs
Service points won65%62%64%
Return points won35%38%38%
Service games held82%76%81%
Breaks of serve19%24%23%
Aces per service game0.740.57
Double faults per game0.240.35
Sets with a tie-break22%17%
Tie-breaks won19/328/23
Wins in straight sets61%56%
Matches in the sample5451

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jan-Lennard Struff

Zizou Bergs

Elo over the last year

Jan-Lennard StruffZizou Bergs

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J.-L. StruffZ. Bergs
Hard court18–1653%13–1448%
Clay4–736%7–750%
Grass6–367%7–370%

Head to head

J.-L. Struff 0–1 Z. Bergs

  • 04/03/26Winner: Z. Bergs3:6 4:6

Road through the tournament

Jan-Lennard Struff

Zizou Bergs

See also