ATP Lyon250Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Jacquet vs Nakashima: prediction and tips
·
Our tips
Tip in 11h 29mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Kyrian Jacquet33%
Brandon Nakashima67%
Elo: K. Jacquet 32% · B. Nakashima 68%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 K. Jacquet20%
2:1 K. Jacquet14%
2:1 B. Nakashima23%
2:0 B. Nakashima43%
First set
Kyrian Jacquet38%
Brandon Nakashima62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 46%market (no margin): 51%
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 69% | 31% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 61% | 39% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 55% | 45% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 46% | 54% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 39% | 61% | 35% |
| 26.5 | 35% | 65% | 30% |
Sample: 5,279 matches
Games handicap
Brandon Nakashima −2.555%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes50%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| K. Jacquet | Tour | B. Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 65% | 62% | 68% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 81% | 76% | 87% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 19% |
| Aces per service game | 0.51 | 0.78 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.23 | 0.10 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 24% | 27% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 24/38 | 17/39 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 74% | |
| Matches in the sample | 64 | 57 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Kyrian Jacquet
- 20/10/26WMatteo Berrettini#43ATP Lyon · R327:6 7:5
- 19/10/26WMichael Mmoh#147ATP Lyon · Q27:6
- 18/10/26WSascha Gueymard Wayenburg#181ATP Lyon · Q16:3 7:5
- 06/10/26LRei Sakamoto#124ATP Shanghai · Q26:7 6:4 6:7
- 05/10/26WTianhui Zhang#788ATP Shanghai · Q16:2 7:6
- 04/10/26LJaume Munar#51ATP Tokyo · QF4:6 2:6
- 02/10/26WLuciano Darderi#23ATP Tokyo · R166:3 7:6
- 01/10/26WHolger RuneATP Tokyo · R326:3 6:1
- 28/09/26LAndrey Rublev#22ATP Hangzhou · SF6:7 1:6
- 27/09/26WFabian Marozsan#64ATP Hangzhou · QF7:6 6:4
Brandon Nakashima
- 20/10/26WHamad Medjedovic#76ATP Lyon · R327:6 6:7 6:2
- 11/10/26LAlexander Bublik#19ATP Shanghai · R327:6 3:6 6:7
- 09/10/26WMatteo Berrettini#43ATP Shanghai · R647:6 7:5
- 01/10/26LUgo Humbert#35ATP Tokyo · R323:6 2:6
- 02/09/26LAlex Michelsen#37ATP US Open · R643:6 4:6 4:6
- 31/08/26WSebastián Báez#49ATP US Open · R1286:2 6:1 6:0
- 22/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#9ATP Cincinnati · SF5:7 3:6
- 21/08/26WTaylor Fritz#14ATP Cincinnati · QF7:6 4:6 6:3
- 19/08/26WNuno Borges#52ATP Cincinnati · R166:3 6:7 6:3
- 18/08/26WDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Cincinnati · R326:7 7:6 6:1
Elo over the last year
Kyrian JacquetBrandon Nakashima
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| K. Jacquet | B. Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 26–1465% | 25–1661% |
| Clay | 8–657% | 5–550% |
| Grass | 7–370% | 4–267% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Kyrian Jacquet
- 18/10/26WSascha Gueymard Wayenburg#181ATP Lyon · Q16:3 7:5
- 19/10/26WMichael Mmoh#147ATP Lyon · Q27:6
- 20/10/26WMatteo Berrettini#43ATP Lyon · R327:6 7:5
Brandon Nakashima
- 20/10/26WHamad Medjedovic#76ATP Lyon · R327:6 6:7 6:2