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ATP Basel500Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Kovacevic vs Duckworth 2:0: result and our tips

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Aleksandar KovacevicATP #84Elo 1805hard 1789
2:0final7:6(6) 6:3
James DuckworthATP #68Elo 1852hard 1823

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Won61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Duckworth: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 25.5Won58%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 62% → with the players' profiles 58%

    Duckworth: 6 matches in a row under 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Aleksandar Kovacevic60%
James Duckworth40%

Elo: A. Kovacevic 45% · J. Duckworth 55%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Kovacevic38%
2:1 A. Kovacevic21%
2:1 J. Duckworth18%
2:0 J. Duckworth23%

First set

Aleksandar Kovacevic57%
James Duckworth43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 24.5 · 56%market (no margin): 50%

The 24.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 25.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.573%27%60%
21.565%35%54%
22.560%41%46%
23.551%49%40%
24.545%55%38%
25.542%58%35%
26.539%61%30%

Sample: 5,909 matches

Games handicap

A. Kovacevic −2.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes53%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 24.5in · 22 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Aleksandar KovacevicJames Duckworth
25Aces12
3Double faults4
73%First serves in66%
82%First-serve points won76%
47%Second-serve points won48%
1/5Break points converted0/3
11/11Service games held9/10
73%Service points won66%
34%Return points won27%
74Total points won64

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. KovacevicTourJ. Duckworth
Service points won66%62%66%
Return points won32%38%35%
Service games held83%76%84%
Breaks of serve13%24%20%
Aces per service game0.730.62
Double faults per game0.280.26
Sets with a tie-break28%19%
Tie-breaks won22/4215/33
Wins in straight sets57%64%
Matches in the sample5972

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Aleksandar Kovacevic

James Duckworth

Elo over the last year

Aleksandar KovacevicJames Duckworth

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. KovacevicJ. Duckworth
Hard court15–2241%29–2257%
Clay7–944%11–473%
Grass1–517%2–433%

Head to head

A. Kovacevic 0–1 J. Duckworth

  • 11/10/22Winner: J. Duckworth6:7 3:6