Challenger Santa Cruz 2Challenger 75Semifinalclaybest of three sets

La Serna vs Dellien 0:2: result and our tips

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Juan Manuel La SernaATP #253Elo 1681clay 1687
0:2final4:6 3:6
Hugo DellienATP #118Elo 1842clay 1861

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: DellienWon72%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Dellien: 4 matches in a row winning the first set

Other tips

  • Match Winner: DellienWon79%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 79%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Dellien won 8 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Games: Over 17.5Won67%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 76% → with the players' profiles 67%

    Over 17.5 games in recent matches: La Serna 18 of 20, Dellien 15 of 20 (tour average 76%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Juan Manuel La Serna21%
Hugo Dellien79%

Elo: J. La Serna 27% · H. Dellien 73%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. La Serna12%
2:1 J. La Serna10%
2:1 H. Dellien22%
2:0 H. Dellien56%

First set

Juan Manuel La Serna28%
Hugo Dellien72%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 55%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.577%23%84%
17.567%33%76%
18.557%43%68%
19.550%50%59%
20.545%55%52%
21.539%61%47%
22.534%66%40%

Sample: 2,609 matches

Games handicap

Hugo Dellien −4.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes18%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.0in · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Juan Manuel La SernaHugo Dellien
1Aces0
2Double faults0
71%First serves in59%
68%First-serve points won70%
50%Second-serve points won81%
0/2Break points converted3/5
7/10Service games held9/9
63%Service points won75%
26%Return points won38%
48Total points won59

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. La SernaTourH. Dellien
Service points won59%62%62%
Return points won44%38%42%
Service games held71%76%76%
Breaks of serve35%24%32%
Aces per service game0.180.25
Double faults per game0.250.13
Sets with a tie-break9%7%
Tie-breaks won6/137/12
Wins in straight sets48%68%
Matches in the sample6172

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Juan Manuel La Serna

Hugo Dellien

Elo over the last year

Juan Manuel La SernaHugo Dellien

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. La SernaH. Dellien
Hard court2–167%1–420%
Clay38–2066%46–2070%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

J. La Serna 0–1 H. Dellien

  • 06/02/26Winner: Hugo Dellien3:6 2:6

Road through the tournament

Juan Manuel La Serna

Hugo Dellien

See also