Challenger Santa Cruz 2Challenger 75Quarterfinalclaybest of three setsqualifying
La Serna vs Roncadelli 2:1: result and our tips
·
2:1final6:1 6:7(4) 6:4
Our tips
No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Juan Manuel La Serna48%
Franco Roncadelli52%
Elo: J. La Serna 49% · F. Roncadelli 51%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 J. La Serna28%
2:1 J. La Serna19%
2:1 F. Roncadelli20%
2:0 F. Roncadelli33%
First set
Juan Manuel La Serna48%
Franco Roncadelli52%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 57%market (no margin): 49%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 21.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 71% | 29% | 76% |
| 18.5 | 62% | 38% | 68% |
| 19.5 | 55% | 45% | 59% |
| 20.5 | 49% | 51% | 52% |
| 21.5 | 43% | 57% | 47% |
| 22.5 | 40% | 60% | 40% |
| 23.5 | 37% | 63% | 36% |
Sample: 4,383 matches
Games handicap
Franco Roncadelli −0.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes17%
tour average 27%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 21.5out · 30 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Juan Manuel La Serna | Franco Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Aces | — |
| 3 | Double faults | 1 |
| 62% | First serves in | 84% |
| 64% | First-serve points won | 57% |
| 67% | Second-serve points won | 53% |
| 6/11 | Break points converted | 2/5 |
| 12/14 | Service games held | 9/15 |
| 65% | Service points won | 56% |
| 44% | Return points won | 35% |
| 96 | Total points won | 82 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| J. La Serna | Tour | F. Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 59% | 62% | 58% |
| Return points won | 44% | 38% | 44% |
| Service games held | 71% | 76% | 66% |
| Breaks of serve | 35% | 24% | 38% |
| Aces per service game | 0.19 | 0.08 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.25 | 0.12 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 8% | 10% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 6/12 | 7/14 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 49% | 53% | |
| Matches in the sample | 60 | 60 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Juan Manuel La Serna
- 15/10/26WGuido Ivan Justo#184Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R166:1 0:0
- 13/10/26WHernan Casanova#394Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R326:3 6:4
- 10/09/26LLukas Neumayer#168Challenger Tulln · R165:7 7:6 1:6
- 08/09/26WFilip Cristian Jianu#286Challenger Tulln · R326:4 3:6 6:3
- 04/09/26LYanaki Milev#535Challenger Plovdiv 3 · QF3:6 6:3 1:6
- 03/09/26WNikita Mashtakov#453Challenger Plovdiv 3 · R166:2 6:4
- 01/09/26WAlexander Vasilev#602Challenger Plovdiv 3 · R326:1 6:2
- 26/08/26LHynek Barton#271Challenger Augsburg · R166:1 5:7 2:6
- 25/08/26WBenjamin Hassan#497Challenger Augsburg · R326:2 3:6 7:5
- 20/08/26LTommaso Compagnucci#373Challenger Sion · QF3:6 7:6 4:6
Franco Roncadelli
- 15/10/26WJuan Carlos Prado Angelo#177Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R166:4 2:6 6:3
- 13/10/26WValerio Aboian#340Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R325:7 6:0 6:3
- 06/10/26LTomas Barrios Vera#155Challenger Antofagasta · R324:6 2:6
- 30/09/26LGuido Ivan Justo#184Challenger Curitiba · R326:7 2:6
- 24/09/26LPedro Boscardin Dias#282Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R166:0 6:7 3:6
- 22/09/26WBruno Fernandez#554Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R326:2 6:0
- 24/08/26LElias Ymer#228ATP US Open · Q14:6 3:6
- 30/07/26LNorbert Gombos#362Challenger Liberec · R165:7 5:7
- 28/07/26WJakub Nicod#765Challenger Liberec · R326:3 6:2
- 23/07/26LHenri Squire#292Challenger Tampere · R163:6 3:6
Elo over the last year
Juan Manuel La SernaFranco Roncadelli
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| J. La Serna | F. Roncadelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 2–167% | 0–10% |
| Clay | 37–2065% | 34–2459% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 0–10% |
Head to head
J. La Serna 1–0 F. Roncadelli
- 16/05/26Winner: Juan Manuel La Serna7:5 2:6 6:3
Road through the tournament
Juan Manuel La Serna
- 13/10/26WHernan Casanova#394Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R326:3 6:4
- 15/10/26WGuido Ivan Justo#184Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R166:1 0:0
Franco Roncadelli
- 13/10/26WValerio Aboian#340Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R325:7 6:0 6:3
- 15/10/26WJuan Carlos Prado Angelo#177Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R166:4 2:6 6:3