WTA 125 LisbonRound of 16claybest of three sets
Lollia vs Burel: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 6hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Mathilde Lollia5%
Clara Burel95%
Elo: M. Lollia 42% · C. Burel 58%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 M. Lollia2%
2:1 M. Lollia3%
2:1 C. Burel12%
2:0 C. Burel83%
First set
Mathilde Lollia9%
Clara Burel91%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes14%
no86%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 17.5 · 60%market (no margin): 52%
The 17.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 17.9
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5 | 87% | 13% | 97% |
| 14.5 | 77% | 24% | 93% |
| 15.5 | 63% | 37% | 86% |
| 16.5 | 51% | 49% | 78% |
| 17.5 | 40% | 60% | 69% |
| 18.5 | 31% | 69% | 60% |
| 19.5 | 26% | 75% | 52% |
Sample: 491 matches
Games handicap
Clara Burel −7.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes9%
tour average 20%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Lollia | Tour | C. Burel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 56% | 56% | 54% |
| Return points won | 45% | 44% | 50% |
| Service games held | 66% | 63% | 61% |
| Breaks of serve | 37% | 37% | 50% |
| Aces per service game | 0.15 | 0.16 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.39 | 0.30 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 22% | 9% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 2/2 | 1/4 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 0% | 75% | |
| Matches in the sample | 3 | 20 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Mathilde Lollia
- 13/10/26WDarja Semenistaja#131WTA 125 Lisbon · R327:6 5:7 6:2
- 12/10/26WLoes Ebeling Koning#378WTA 125 Lisbon · Q27:5 4:6 7:6
- 11/10/26WMaria Martinez Vaquero#500WTA 125 Lisbon · Q13:6 6:4 6:2
- 09/07/25LJulia Riera#138WTA 125 Contrexeville · R327:5 3:6 1:6
- 07/07/25WAlicia Herrero Linana#222WTA 125 Contrexeville · Q27:6 6:4
- 06/07/25WLia Karatancheva#393WTA 125 Contrexeville · Q16:7 6:3 6:3
Clara Burel
- 12/10/26WLina Gjorcheska#361WTA 125 Lisbon · R326:1 6:3
- 20/09/26WAlicia Herrero Linana#222WTA 125 Valencia · F4:6 6:0 6:2
- 19/09/26WJoelle Lilly Sophie Steur#283WTA 125 Valencia · SF6:1 6:4
- 18/09/26WGuiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales#148WTA 125 Valencia · QF6:2 6:4
- 15/09/26WAran Teixido Garcia#365WTA 125 Valencia · R327:6 6:0
- 11/09/26LGuiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales#148WTA 125 Montreux · QF3:6 6:1 1:6
- 09/09/26WTessa Johanna Brockmann#333WTA 125 Montreux · R166:4 6:1
- 08/09/26WKaterina Tsygourova#441WTA 125 Montreux · R326:1 6:4
- 26/08/26LQinwen Zheng#23WTA US Open · Q21:6 5:7
- 24/08/26WYexin Ma#184WTA US Open · Q16:4 6:2
Elo over the last year
Mathilde LolliaClara Burel
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Lollia | C. Burel | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 0–0 | 1–150% |
| Clay | 3–0100% | 11–761% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Mathilde Lollia
- 11/10/26WMaria Martinez Vaquero#500WTA 125 Lisbon · Q13:6 6:4 6:2
- 12/10/26WLoes Ebeling Koning#378WTA 125 Lisbon · Q27:5 4:6 7:6
- 13/10/26WDarja Semenistaja#131WTA 125 Lisbon · R327:6 5:7 6:2
Clara Burel
- 12/10/26WLina Gjorcheska#361WTA 125 Lisbon · R326:1 6:3