Challenger JinanChallenger 175Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Macháč vs Muller 2:0: result and our tips

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Tomáš MacháčATP #75Elo 1969hard 1947
2:0final6:3 6:4
Alexandre MullerATP #133Elo 1788hard 1779

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Tomáš Macháč70%
Alexandre Muller30%

Elo: T. Macháč 72% · A. Muller 28%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Macháč47%
2:1 T. Macháč22%
2:1 A. Muller13%
2:0 A. Muller17%

First set

Tomáš Macháč65%
Alexandre Muller35%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 54%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%62%
20.561%40%54%
21.554%46%49%
22.548%52%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.538%62%35%
25.535%65%32%

Sample: 4,684 matches

Games handicap

Tomáš Macháč −3.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 21.5out · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Tomáš MacháčAlexandre Muller
4Aces2
0Double faults1
69%First serves in72%
72%First-serve points won65%
63%Second-serve points won26%
4/8Break points converted1/2
8/9Service games held6/10
69%Service points won54%
46%Return points won31%
67Total points won52

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. MacháčTourA. Muller
Service points won62%62%62%
Return points won35%38%35%
Service games held77%76%75%
Breaks of serve19%24%18%
Aces per service game0.410.33
Double faults per game0.210.19
Sets with a tie-break18%15%
Tie-breaks won10/1610/18
Wins in straight sets44%62%
Matches in the sample3450

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Tomáš Macháč

Alexandre Muller

Elo over the last year

Tomáš MacháčAlexandre Muller

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. MacháčA. Muller
Hard court10–1343%12–1446%
Clay6–555%9–1439%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

T. Macháč 1–1 A. Muller

  • 09/09/23Winner: Tomáš Macháč3:6 6:3 7:6
  • 19/02/23Winner: Alexandre Muller6:4 6:7 1:6