Challenger BrestChallenger 125Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Maestrelli vs Diallo: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1h 27mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Francesco Maestrelli24%
Gabriel Diallo76%
Elo: F. Maestrelli 25% · G. Diallo 75%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 F. Maestrelli14%
2:1 F. Maestrelli11%
2:1 G. Diallo22%
2:0 G. Diallo54%
First set
Francesco Maestrelli30%
Gabriel Diallo70%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 50%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 77% | 23% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 68% | 32% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 52% | 48% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 46% | 54% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 61% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 35% | 65% | 35% |
Sample: 3,728 matches
Games handicap
G. Diallo −4.546%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes40%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| F. Maestrelli | Tour | G. Diallo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 36% | 38% | 33% |
| Service games held | 79% | 76% | 79% |
| Breaks of serve | 20% | 24% | 17% |
| Aces per service game | 0.58 | 0.63 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.29 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 21% | 24% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 16/30 | 9/19 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 58% | |
| Matches in the sample | 58 | 32 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Francesco Maestrelli
- 27/10/26WMoez Echargui#350Challenger Brest · R327:6 6:3
- 18/10/26LBorna Gojo#135ATP Lyon · Q16:4 3:6 6:7
- 15/10/26LMaxim Mrva#228Challenger Olbia · R163:6 4:6
- 13/10/26WMili Poljicak#274Challenger Olbia · R326:2 6:3
- 06/10/26LOliver Tarvet#295Challenger Villena · R326:4 3:6 4:6
- 21/09/26LAndrea Guerrieri#165Challenger Saint Tropez · R323:6 7:6 3:6
- 18/09/26LSascha Gueymard Wayenburg#181Challenger Rennes · QF0:6 3:6
- 17/09/26WYanis Ghazouani Durand#529Challenger Rennes · R164:6 7:6 6:3
- 16/09/26WArthur Nagel#357Challenger Rennes · R326:4 7:6
- 11/09/26LMaks Kaśnikowski#213Challenger Istanbul 3 · QF0:6 6:2 1:6
Gabriel Diallo
- 26/10/26WNishesh Basavareddy#131Challenger Brest · R326:3 7:5
- 18/10/26LRei Sakamoto#125ATP Almaty · Q26:2 4:6 4:6
- 17/10/26WHarold Mayot#233ATP Almaty · Q17:6 6:2
- 05/08/26LLuciano Darderi#23ATP Montreal · R644:6 3:2
- 03/08/26WKyrian Jacquet#79ATP Montreal · R1286:7 6:3 6:2
- 28/07/26LTristan Boyer#195ATP Los Cabos · R325:7 2:6
- 02/07/26LLorenzo Sonego#91ATP Wimbledon · R646:7 6:4 6:7 7:6 2:6
- 30/06/26WBenjamin Bonzi#99ATP Wimbledon · R1281:6 4:6 7:6 6:3 3:1
- 25/06/26LJack Draper#158ATP Eastbourne · QF1:6 4:6
- 24/06/26WTomás Martín Etcheverry#29ATP Eastbourne · R166:7 6:3 6:2
Elo over the last year
Francesco MaestrelliGabriel Diallo
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| F. Maestrelli | G. Diallo | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 25–1858% | 8–1142% |
| Clay | 2–1017% | 1–517% |
| Grass | 0–30% | 3–443% |
Head to head
F. Maestrelli 1–0 G. Diallo
- 01/01/23Winner: F. Maestrelli3:6 7:6 6:4
Road through the tournament
Francesco Maestrelli
- 27/10/26WMoez Echargui#350Challenger Brest · R327:6 6:3
Gabriel Diallo
- 26/10/26WNishesh Basavareddy#131Challenger Brest · R326:3 7:5