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ATP Basel500Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Michelsen vs Van de Zandschulp 2:1: result and our tips

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Alex MichelsenATP #34Elo 2028hard 2016
2:1final5:7 6:3 6:3
Botic Van de ZandschulpATP #37Elo 1990hard 1967

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 23.5Lost57%

Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 57%

Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Michelsen 15 of 20, Van de Zandschulp 13 of 20 (tour average 60%)

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: MichelsenLost62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Michelsen won the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches, Van de Zandschulp lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alex Michelsen64%
Botic Van de Zandschulp36%

Elo: A. Michelsen 57% · B. Van de Zandschulp 43%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Michelsen40%
2:1 A. Michelsen22%
2:1 B. Van de Zandschulp16%
2:0 B. Van de Zandschulp22%

First set

Alex Michelsen59%
Botic Van de Zandschulp41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 49%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.573%27%68%
20.565%35%60%
21.559%41%54%
22.551%49%46%
23.544%56%40%
24.541%59%38%
25.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,713 matches

Games handicap

A. Michelsen −2.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes44%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 23.0out · 30 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Alex MichelsenBotic Van de Zandschulp
4Aces8
2Double faults9
68%First serves in60%
62%First-serve points won71%
64%Second-serve points won37%
5/12Break points converted3/7
12/15Service games held10/15
63%Service points won57%
43%Return points won38%
109Total points won97

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. MichelsenTourB. Van de Zandschulp
Service points won65%62%63%
Return points won38%38%38%
Service games held82%76%79%
Breaks of serve23%24%22%
Aces per service game0.470.54
Double faults per game0.250.36
Sets with a tie-break19%22%
Tie-breaks won16/2921/33
Wins in straight sets73%67%
Matches in the sample6156

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alex Michelsen

Botic Van de Zandschulp

Elo over the last year

Alex MichelsenBotic Van de Zandschulp

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. MichelsenB. Van de Zandschulp
Hard court28–1467%21–1657%
Clay6–746%7–750%
Grass3–260%2–340%

Head to head

A. Michelsen 0–1 B. Van de Zandschulp

  • 10/10/26Winner: B. Van de Zandschulp4:6 4:6

See also