Moller vs Pereira 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 73% → with the players' profiles 66%
Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Moller 16 of 20, Pereira 18 of 20 (tour average 68%); Pereira: 8 matches in a row over 18.5 games
Where the number comes from: market alone 44% → with the players' profiles 40%
Over 22.5 games in recent matches: Moller 8 of 20, Pereira 14 of 20 (tour average 40%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: E. Moller 72% · T. Pereira 28%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 75% | 25% | 76% |
| 18.5 | 66% | 34% | 68% |
| 19.5 | 59% | 42% | 59% |
| 20.5 | 53% | 47% | 52% |
| 21.5 | 46% | 54% | 47% |
| 22.5 | 40% | 60% | 40% |
| 23.5 | 38% | 62% | 36% |
Sample: 4,246 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 27%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 21.5out · 27 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Elmer Moller | Tiago Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aces | 2 |
| 5 | Double faults | 4 |
| 69% | First serves in | 60% |
| 64% | First-serve points won | 57% |
| 40% | Second-serve points won | 27% |
| 9/19 | Break points converted | 5/11 |
| 8/13 | Service games held | 5/14 |
| 56% | Service points won | 45% |
| 55% | Return points won | 44% |
| 112 | Total points won | 90 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| E. Moller | Tour | T. Pereira | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 56% | 62% | 60% |
| Return points won | 43% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 65% | 76% | 71% |
| Breaks of serve | 32% | 24% | 22% |
| Aces per service game | 0.20 | 0.27 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.47 | 0.16 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 13% | 15% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/14 | 6/15 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 73% | 33% | |
| Matches in the sample | 49 | 41 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Elmer Moller
- 08/10/26WZsombor Piros#114Challenger Braga · R161:6 6:1 7:5
- 05/10/26WThiago Monteiro#235Challenger Braga · R327:6 5:7 6:4
- 29/09/26LCarlos Taberner#361Challenger Bari · R323:6 4:6
- 02/09/26LMaks Kaśnikowski#238Challenger Manacor · R322:6 6:4 4:6
- 24/08/26LColeman Wong#101ATP US Open · Q17:5 3:6 4:6
- 19/08/26LAnton Matusevich#314Challenger Roehampton · R161:6 3:6
- 18/08/26WIvan Ivanov#494Challenger Roehampton · R326:4 6:2
- 11/08/26LRudolf Molleker#535Challenger Hamburg · R321:6 3:6
- 08/08/26LJerome Kym#249Challenger Hagen · SF1:6 6:7
- 07/08/26WCarlos Taberner#361Challenger Hagen · QF7:6 7:5
Tiago Pereira
- 08/10/26WNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo#157Challenger Braga · R167:5 6:3
- 07/10/26WPol Martin Tiffon#215Challenger Braga · R326:3 6:4
- 01/10/26LHugo Grenier#269Challenger Porto 2 · R166:7 3:6
- 29/09/26WOtto Virtanen#107Challenger Porto 2 · R326:4 2:6 6:3
- 20/09/26LPavlos TsitsipasChallenger Plovdiv 4 · Q17:6 5:7 6:7
- 15/09/26LFilip Pieczonka#905Challenger Szczecin · R327:5 4:6 5:7
- 14/09/26WRudolf Molleker#535Challenger Szczecin · Q22:6 6:4 7:6
- 13/09/26WImanol Lopez Morillo#668Challenger Szczecin · Q14:6 6:3 7:6
- 10/09/26LGenaro Alberto Olivieri#287Challenger Seville · R161:6 3:6
- 08/09/26WMarco Trungelliti#90Challenger Seville · R326:4 4:6 6:4
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| E. Moller | T. Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 2–625% | 5–1131% |
| Clay | 24–1759% | 10–1442% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 0–10% |
Head to head
E. Moller 2–1 T. Pereira
- 17/11/25Winner: Elmer Moller5:7 6:3 6:2
- 22/09/25Winner: Tiago Pereira5:7 5:7
- 22/09/24Winner: Elmer Moller6:2 6:1
Road through the tournament
Elmer Moller
- 05/10/26WThiago Monteiro#235Challenger Braga · R327:6 5:7 6:4
- 08/10/26WZsombor Piros#114Challenger Braga · R161:6 6:1 7:5
Tiago Pereira
- 07/10/26WPol Martin Tiffon#215Challenger Braga · R326:3 6:4
- 08/10/26WNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo#157Challenger Braga · R167:5 6:3