Moriya vs Derepasko 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 56% → with the players' profiles 59%
Derepasko: 8 matches in a row under 22.5 games; Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Moriya 12 of 20, Derepasko 15 of 17 (tour average 58%)
Other tips
- Total Sets: Under 2.5Won65%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Derepasko: 8 matches in a row without a deciding set; No third set in recent matches: Moriya 14 of 20, Derepasko 15 of 17 (tour average 66%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: H. Moriya 32% · T. Derepasko 68%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 69% | 31% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 61% | 39% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 54% | 46% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 48% | 52% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 42% | 59% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 37% | 63% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 35% | 65% | 35% |
Sample: 4,574 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 2:0
- Total games Under 21.5in · 21 games
- Games handicapcovered
Match stats
| Hiroki Moriya | Timofei Derepasko | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aces | 12 |
| 0 | Double faults | 1 |
| 62% | First serves in | 60% |
| 70% | First-serve points won | 64% |
| 60% | Second-serve points won | 38% |
| 4/13 | Break points converted | 2/2 |
| 8/10 | Service games held | 6/10 |
| 66% | Service points won | 53% |
| 47% | Return points won | 34% |
| 77 | Total points won | 61 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| H. Moriya | Tour | T. Derepasko | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 61% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 74% | 76% | 73% |
| Breaks of serve | 27% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.23 | 0.48 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.29 | 0.32 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 19% | 8% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 8/24 | 2/3 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 90% | |
| Matches in the sample | 54 | 17 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Hiroki Moriya
- 25/10/26WTaisei Ichikawa#751Challenger Ningbo · Q16:4 6:4
- 18/10/26LOmar Jasika#386Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q12:6 3:6
- 07/10/26LKeisuke Saitoh#481Challenger Wuning 3 · R162:6 3:6
- 06/10/26WKeegan Smith#185Challenger Wuning 3 · R323:6 7:6 6:3
- 29/09/26LOmar Jasika#386Challenger Jingshan · Q24:6 4:6
- 28/09/26WJilong HuangChallenger Jingshan · Q16:0 6:4
- 15/09/26LBlake Ellis#451Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R324:6 7:5 3:6
- 11/09/26LYuta Shimizu#404Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · QF7:5 5:7 6:7
- 09/09/26WMaximus Jones#491Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R166:3 7:6
- 07/09/26WDominik Palan#603Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R324:6 6:1 6:2
Timofei Derepasko
- 25/10/26WXiaoyin YangChallenger Ningbo · Q16:4 6:2
- 09/10/26LOmar Jasika#386Challenger Wuning 3 · QF3:6 2:6
- 07/10/26WFilip Peliwo#643Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:3 7:6
- 05/10/26WSergey Fomin#291Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:2 7:6
- 15/09/26LIlia Simakin#146Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R324:6 3:6
- 14/09/26WTaisei Ichikawa#751Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · Q27:5 6:3
- 13/09/26WStefan StorchChallenger Phan Thiet 4 · Q16:3 6:3
- 10/09/26LCruz Hewitt#314Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R163:6 2:6
- 08/09/26WSam Ryan Ziegann#817Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R326:3 4:6 6:4
- 07/09/26WTaiyo Yamanaka#831Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · Q26:3 6:4
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| H. Moriya | T. Derepasko | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 24–2747% | 10–759% |
| Clay | 1–150% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 1–150% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Hiroki Moriya
- 25/10/26WTaisei Ichikawa#751Challenger Ningbo · Q16:4 6:4
Timofei Derepasko
- 25/10/26WXiaoyin YangChallenger Ningbo · Q16:4 6:2